TPTK facing big flop raise from Tag in HU pot

[aislephive]

Button is 20/16, has 3 bet me a decent amount but nothing crazy. Seems decent/solid from what I've seen. I'm running 22/19 and my image is aggressive.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$2/$4 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $211.00
BB: $962.30
Hero (UTG): $463.00
MP: $1,526.90
CO: $436.50
BTN: $398.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $16.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($38) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $28.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $100.00</font>, Hero ???

[kura0]

without a more specific read, i probably fold flop here,
as calling puts you in really bad spot on the turn.
if we 3bet we are committed, so i like a fold here

[Jay Riall]

I'm not folding this here when only 2 hands realistically beat us. J9s aswell I guess, but there are only 2 combos of that.

[LuckyDice]

I push

[kura0]

i stoved it ,
heres what i come up for :
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.032 secs 649,687 games/sec

Board: Js 3s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.227% 41.95% 00.28% 8721 58.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 57.773% 57.49% 00.28% 11953 58.00 { 99, 33, AcJc, As9s, As3s, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QsTs, J9s, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJh, KdJs, KhJs, KsJh, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s }


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we get about 2:1 on the flopcall, and hes getting about 2:1 if we push to his flopraise,
does this make it a call or a shove?
hes obv not wrong calling if we push.

discuss pls, im not sure if something went wrong with my math

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
i stoved it ,
heres what i come up for :
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.032 secs 649,687 games/sec

Board: Js 3s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.227% 41.95% 00.28% 8721 58.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 57.773% 57.49% 00.28% 11953 58.00 { 99, 33, AcJc, As9s, As3s, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QcJc, QdJd, QcTc, QsTs, J9s, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJh, KdJs, KhJs, KsJh, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QhJs, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s }


---

we get about 2:1 on the flopcall, and hes getting about 2:1 if we push to his flopraise,
does this make it a call or a shove?
hes obv not wrong calling if we push.

discuss pls, im not sure if something went wrong with my math

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your range is accurate because I think a lot of those hands don't make a lot of sense. I don't think he makes a big flop raise with something like TJ, and I don't think he calls pre with J9o.

Here is a range I put together which seems accurate.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.005 secs 7,128,000 games/sec

Board: Js 9c 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.455% 35.24% 08.21% 12560 2927.50 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 56.545% 48.33% 08.21% 17225 2927.50 { 99, 33, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, KsQs, KsTs, Ks9s, QTs, Qs9s, J9s, Ts9s, T8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, AJo

If I add KJ and QJ and stuff like that my equity skyrockets, but I dunno how likely those hands are.

[kura0]

oh well our results are very different =) bad work on my side =P
i just gave him one combinations of the unlikely hands, instead of 8 or so.

[aislephive]

Bump.

[Huggy]

What do you guys think of flat call then crai if no spade come an c/f is a spade comes ? ! ?

[tannenj]

i'd jam it