Defending BB

[Pvnuts]

Hey eveyone,

I'm a pretty strong BB defender. Though I am pretty sure that I"m ahead, I only have a sample of 4000 hands right now, so I'm still strugging about long term effects of this play. Here is my logic and please feel free to find leaks that could be helpfull...

1. I view calling one bet pre-flop as seeing the flop for half price.
2. If the person raising is a know blind steeler, I'll call him with almost anything. I could usually outplay them and get them to give it up by the turn or river.
3. If get a raise from the early to mid position, I'm assuming Ak, JJ or the like... maybe 22 since some raise all their pokets. I will usually call the bet if I hold a high card with a rag. I would also call drawing hands even though the field of play is only the raiser and me. I only do it because I'm getting a discount... I would never cold call here with that type of hand. I would simply fold.
3. I realize that AK for example against my Q2o would be about 80% over my 30%. Therefore, I would treat the flop like a pocket pair... Bad Flop = check/fold to my opponent.
4. Here is my reasoning. At a $1/$2 limit game, there would be $4 in the pot where I only had to voluntarily put in $1. I only have to invest 25% when my oponent has 75% invested in the pot. So with a 30% chance of taking the pot down, in the long run it would cost me $3 to win $4. Now of course you had to invest in the BB in the first place, so really you are -$1 once everything is said and done, however, much better than being -$3 if you simply fold to the raise.
4. However, this is assuming that no more money is put in the pot after the flop. We all know that the 30% of the time where you will win the hand, that more money will be called or even raised by your oponent. Q2o is the hand I played last night agains AK where the pot grew after every card...
Preflop: $4 rc
Flop (Q28): $6 bc
Turn (7): $10 bc
River (K): $14 bc

Now this was a lucky flop and I realize I have 30% of winning if it goes down to a showdown, but with proper post-flop play, you have the opportunity to outplay the player even if the flop is mid-favarable for you. In other words, you could take down pots when you know the opponent will miss the flop 75% of the time. If he shows strengh after the flop and I don't think I have him beat I simply take my discount losses which get compensated by my wins.

Any feed back would be appreciated. I'm looking for good discussion on this since even though I seem sold on my play, I will consider any feed back from more experienced players.

All I know is that the player I beat with Q2 last night called me an idiot... by the end of the session, 2 other players including him (the one who called me an idiot) were taken by my pre-flop play while in the BB... but to be honest... last night was a very lucky night for me in the blinds. I was not as impressed... lol

[AKQJ10]

I've become more of a NLHE specialist these days, but I think I still have a good handle on LHE theory so I'll venture some comments.

1. That's true, except that implied odds matter here. If you're playing a hand that's going to lead to very difficult decisions on the later rounds (e.g. A7), then it's not really half-price. More about this below.

2. That's fine. You should defend more loosely against known thieves, obviously, and you should defend more loosely if you play better than the raiser postflop.

3a. The problem with high card + rag is that, paraphrasing Miller, your opponent won't turn his hand over on the flop and tell you you're beat. If you figure that a given raiser's range is AK-AT (s or o), KQ, 66+, you call with A3, and you flop aces, you still have no idea where you stand. Always bet/folding against decent opposition is usually too weak-tight, but always calling down to the river will make your opponent with AK very very pleased. Ditto to some extent if you call against 77 and flop a trey. You're playing easily dominated hands out of position, so your "bargain" isn't nearly as good as you surmise.

3b. AK vs. Q2 is around 68-32. But some of those flops are flops where you pair the deuce and don't really know you're ahead. Again, reverse implied odds are active with a vengeance, because you don't know where you stand. As I once wrote there:

[ QUOTE ]
It's the opposite of implied odds. Implied odds mean that you're playing a hand at a bit of equity disadvantage (e.g. calling a raise with 33) because the hand carries a future informational advantage. Future cards can come that help you win a big pot, and it's clear what those cards are.

RIO is playing a hand that has a bit of an equity advantage (likely to be leading more than 1/n of the time n-handed) but carries a huge informational disadvantage, i.e. you don't know where you stand. Future cards may hurt you, causing you to lose a big pot, but you don't know which cards those are.

A classic example that stands out in my mind is from SSHE, a superb limit text. You have A9o and flop top pair of nines on a fairly coordinated board. You may well have the best hand, but few cards can come to improve it (actually I'm just saying that from memory, it seems to me like five is a typical number of outs) if you're behind, but many cards can beat you if you're ahead. You won't know where you stand until the showdown, and the chances of you paying off a better hand are fairly high. Against significant action Miller et al suggest you fold it.

When I first read that I found that a little startling. I mean, TPTK, isn't that why you take a flop? I think playing NLHE has given me a much better sense of RIO, because it is so easy to get lost in a hand and donk off tons of chips not knowing if you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you routinely call continuation bets down to the river with bottom pair, you'll often be throwing away part of that 28% better hands.

4a. See above; the odds aren't as good as they appear because of RIO. If your opponent is kind enough to table her hand face-up on the flop, then of course RIO don't apply.

4b. Citing an anecdotal hold 'em hand in which you flopped two pair is ridiculous. Why don't you post similar examples where your Q2 flopped Q7J against AQ, or Q95 against 99, or where it flopped J52 against AK but you folded?

I wouldn't call you an idiot for defending with Q2, because you obviously have thought about poker and your thoughts aren't incoherent or idiotic. But you're really overestimating the value of weak starting hands because you don't consider implied odds. You clearly think highly of your postflop ability, but I'd still point you to an excellent beginner's book (with some concepts that I found useful as a not-quite-beginner): GSIHE.

You have the big-card value of hands down pat and would do well defending if you were always all-in preflop (i.e. with one big bet in your stack). But I don't think you get the postflop informational value of hands, i.e. implied odds, just yet.

[Pvnuts]

Hi AKQJ10, thanks for you're reply. Keep in mind that I'm struggling with this topic based on the fact that my stats show good results in my BB position (however, I only have 4000 hand sample) and get very different inputs from books that I read. For example Skalansky would no doubt want his readers to chuck that hand. I may sound confident, but I’m really not… just expressing my thoughts.

Yes the example I gave you was one sided and does not reflect other possible situations, but keep in mind that if I'm correct in my call (still to be determined); it will only work with good post-flop play. Assuming I don't know anything about this player and I get a flop like that gives me a more realistic situation where I don't hit or I hit a 2 or even a Q that leaves me a rag kicker... I could still know where I'm at if I play post flop correctly. If I hit nothing and he bets... I fold... end of story... i lost $1. If I hit the 2 or the Q this is where I'm not sure where I'm at, and I agree with you fully... But can we not gather some information post flop by our play? It will cost a bit more, but at least we have some kind of a hand to justify fishing/paying for some information to see where we are at. Example, I may put an unknown player on over cards with his pre-flop raise in Mid-position. I also assume that once the flop falls, he will miss it 2/3rds of the time. Now once the flop hits and I get a 2 or a Q... what do I do? One scenario I sometimes do is check raise after the flop. If he was simply trying to steal the pot from mid-position at a very tight table, I will most likely take down the pot right there where it cost me $3 to win $8. If he came in with TT, JJ, AK, AJ ect... he will most likely call me on the flop
(Trying to show fear) hoping to raise me on the turn. However, I would check on the turn where I believe I will receive the information I need. If he bets, I fold, if he checks he is looking for a free card and I will check call on the river in case he was patient enough to wait for me to bet the river in order to go over top of me.

On the other hand, if I get re-raised after my raise on the flop, then I call the extra $1 and see where I'm at after the turn... any bet from him will end up in a fold for me after this point. Again, this is assuming I don't know anything about the player. This would adjust if I had information on this player where I may call him down.

So basically... the way I see it.... it will cost me $1 to see the flop and an extra $2 to see where I'm at. At worse, if I get re-raised I may call if I have odds to call ($10 in the pot with re-raise of $1 with the turn card to come is about 7-1, so anything over $8 would justify this call… and keep in mind that my week pair may still be good). After the turn I would fold to any bet since I would need at lease $16 in the pot and I'm assuming at that point that I'm beat... but keep in mind that even after the re-raise after the flop, I have the odds of being ahead by $2 after 8 tries in a similar situation plus whatever else I could extract after the turn and on the river. However, I would still play carefully after the turn since my oponenent may be holding trips or may also improve his hand. I rarely bet at this point... just check and call if I feel he could improve with something stronger and raise the stakes if I feel I have him beat from the turn on…

Keep in mind also, that I don’t see Q2 as good starting hand. Rather I see my position at one with value. I’m in the BB and I get to see the flop for 50% discount to see the flop. What I do after is what will determine if I will make money or not.
As for RIO, you are right… it’s dangerous. I have to lean on the side of caution and be ready to chuck my hand. Also, you are right about the value of my 30% going down if I don’t play to the river each time… which is a loosing play of course. But you are also limiting the loses and gaining the winnings if you hit well… So whatever % the 30 goes down to have more value and the % of the looses go up, but you loose less money over all… The question still remains in my mind…. Do I win more than I loose with good post flop play?

Do I feel confident about my BB play? No, not at all…. I am portraying it because I’m looking for feed back… I am a beginner (as you detected) and read and will continue to read as many books as I can… but I’m far from confident. I am more than willing to post all my stats to prove that point… lol They were really good last week and this week I got the adjustment that I needed….

Hope to hear your feed back…