Surprise!!! 3-bet on river

[LukeSLTS]

Turning Stone 15/30, usual semi-tight/passive game.
Villain 1: He is one of the looser players at the table but passive.
Villain 2: He is a supertight rock. The only hands he raises preflop are AA and KK, with the occassional QQ to mix it up.
I have a TAG image, but today I have had better cards so I have been raising a lot more and have taken down the blinds about five times in the last 1.5 hours.

I get A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG and raise villain 1 calls in MP and villain 2 calls on the button. Villain 1 can have any pair or any two cards ten or higher. Villain 2 has TT+, AJ+, and possibly KQ. The SB folds and BB calls.

The flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet MP raises (he would do this with an ace or better but never as a semibluff), and button 3-bets (minimum holding is AQ), BB folds, and I cap.

Turn is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I bet, both villains call.

River is a 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I bet, MP raises and button 3-bets. What the hell just happened? If there had been more action on the turn I would lay this down right away but this river has me baffled.

[leo doc]

Are you sure villian 2's range doesn't include 99 pre-flop? His play sure smells like it; a "super tight rock" might have played the turn like this just to make sure the flush didn't get there on the river.

[BeakWetter]

I agree that normally this is an easier fold than it seems to be here.
It seems like villian 2 just wanted to wait for the River to "make sure" his holding was good... given the read he should be ahead of you here often enough.
MP is the curious one here. Oddly played AK?... maybe an A9s, a set of 6s...or FOS. Really not sure, but unless the supertight rock misread his hand, we can probably fold...

Did you call and everyone chop with AK??

[that_pope]

It really does reek of a 99 here...dunno if I would call or fold. If he is as tight as you say, I think this is a very easy fold. If anything, the guy who 2 bet is chopping with you...

[AragornX151]

Ouch. Boy, this is an UGLY spot. So few hands make sense that beat you is the thing...does a set really just call the turn? I agree some players play as BeakWetter describe (i.e. the opposite of optimal) to put in that raise, and if he's really that tight, is he 3-betting with less than a set?

MP could have you but more likely has two smaller pair. I think that the rock has AK at worst 95% of the time...but man, I don't know if I let this go without REALLY knowing he couldn't show up with A9s here. Honestly, I think AK is his most likely holding given the action and you're chopping a lot...

[Captain R]

My Power of 10 bubble says 50-60% fold.

[AragornX151]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is as tight as you say, I think this is a very easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This actually makes it harder, unless he's only tight when it comes to raising but calls more liberally preflop than OP suggested. Because AK actually fits his preflop cold call far better than 44. 99 certainly seems possible...almost EVERYONE would call 99 there...I can't recall seeing someone who I'd label as so tight that they'd fold 99 for one raise pre in position after a caller.

Sorry for the flood of posts, have had no time of late and am getting into limit mode for the weekend!

[Vehn]

This is pretty gross but you have to be calling 2 cold here to hope for a chop, there's no way you win this outright. I guess I would find a fold.

[Mr Rick]

Most passives I play with won't raise the river when I have advertised AK by raising UTG unless they have AK beat. Your only hope here is that one of these guys isn't as passive as you think and the other has AK.

Having said that, I am working on calling large pots rather just throwing away my hand because I think I'm beat, mostly because I have a hard time letting go of it when I fail to win a huge pot I folded... And partly because when I try to guess the odds of me being good, I have no idea how close I am and small %'s matter a lot. In this case if you think you win outright 5% of the time and chop 10% of the time its a close call.

The odd factor here is whether or not Villain 1 is going to raise again. I would guess not, I would call, I would lose to 66 and 99.

[blackasthma]

[ QUOTE ]
If there had been more action on the turn I would lay this down right away but this river has me baffled.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cap the flop OOP and would consider folding on that turn card? Are you nuts???