NL400 AK+Flush draw - Weird weird spot

[Eternal]

Villain is 19/10
This is a weird situation. I would've stacked on the flop had he reraised but he just called. If he checked the turn, I would've bet/shoved, but he donk bet into me wtf??

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $458.60
Hero (BB): $400.00
UTG: $341.15
UTG+1: $436.50
MP1: $544.70
MP2: $74.00
MP3: $601.90
CO: $427.00
BTN: $398.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $4.00, MP3 calls $4.00, CO calls $4.00, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $28.00</font>, Hero calls $24.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($68) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $39.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $120.00</font>, SB calls $81.00

Turn: ($308) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $150.00</font>, [i]Hero ??

[maltaille]

You don't say whether he seems good, tricky, straightforward, what you've seen him do, how many hands his stats are over, whether he bets the turn a lot, what kind of 19/10 he is, or how you're perceived so it's hard to suggest what the right read might be.

He could have 7h8h (is he the sort of 19/10 who will raise suited connectors from the button after several limpers? Or is he still going to be playing only premium hands here, meaning he's likely to have an overpair or set of 9's?) and think he's slowplaying a monster (which I guess he would be, though not as much as he thinks he is) and wants to make sure it all goes in by the river. It could equally be his idea of what to do if he thinks you're just trying to bluff him off a nasty flop for an overpair. Maybe he is actually afraid you have 78, but feels laying his overpair down would be weak, so he's trying to get to showdown cheaply (this doesn't actually make a lot of sense - he's only got $100 behind after the turn right? It's all going in regardless - but then again, neither do a lot of players thought processes).

Let's say he's not a total donkey, so best guess he's trying to get it all in by the river and you're currently behind, your flush outs are good (that set of 9's is definitely possible, but I think a low probability), but at least half the time your overcard outs aren't. If we put your outs at 9 for the flush, and 3 for the half the time your 6 overcards are good, that gives you 12 outs with one card to come - roughly 4:1. If you're going to get paid when your cards come, which you probably are with that little left behind, it's worth a call. If you aren't, then it's time to fold. No point pushing because of the likelihood it will all go in anyway.

[CopTHIS]

As played it's probably very marginal on the turn either way. On the flop I think you are better off calling against a typical FR player with those stats. If he does squeeze a bit then fair enough, otherwise you are really only looking to fold out AK - and if he has that then he'll probably slow down anyway.

[kidpokeher]

Looks like he put you on exactly what you have and he's hoping you'll fold it if he donks into you with his big pair.

[soah]

I hate pf unless you're certain you can outplay this guy real bad postflop. And that doesn't seem to be the case...

[Mr_Donktastic]

I would 3 bet preflop for sure, esp vs a 19/10...why didn't you?

As played you are getting a good price to call considering the last $100 is definitely going in if you hit the river.

[mce86]

Even if you hit your flush, your making a bad call. If we are assuming your ace or king are good, then it is better.
Looks like he's trying to get your stack here. His bet also allows him to call your push without making too big of a mistake. If you had him covered it would be a better call.

[Mr_Donktastic]

Why is it a bad call? He has 26% equity vs a range of overpairs and sets and is getting 3:1 on his money, with $100 extra guaranteed to go in on the river.

[Raised2Win]

u have no fold equity, if u dont think AK will win at showdown u just call the turn and hope to improve because u get 3-1 with little implied odds and probable 15 outs or so.

[mce86]

it depends on if his ace or king is good.
If they arent good, then its not a good call. Even with the extra $100 going in, your not making a +EV call, only a slightly - call. If your ace is good, that changes things up. He will be getting exactly 4-1 on his money with the implied odds he will hit. Now if villian had a set or two pair, then some of his outs are gone. I just see it as very break even here at best, and obviously Villian is looking to get all his money in by throwing this donk bet at him.