Two pair, hating it, but getting 6:1 - do you fold this?

TheDunePariah · #1 08-07-2007, 07:52 PM

MP seems a little fishy at 43/18 over 65 hands, but I don't have much info on him otherwise. CO is a giant fish at 90/20 - he literally can't let go of any piece of the board, and will bet three streets if checked to and then call a c/r all-in on the river with bottom pair.

I'm expecting soem "fold PF" comments, but note that pfr is 90/20, I'm getting minraised in the BB - I'm looking to flop big and stack him.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($159.50)
Button ($138.80)
SB ($78.40)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($65.95)
MP ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, CO raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50.

Flop: ($3.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $3, MP calls $3, CO calls $3.

Turn: ($12.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $6, Hero calls $6, MP calls $6.

River: ($30.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $18, Hero calls $18, MP raises to $40 (All-In), CO calls $22, Hero calls $22 (All-In).

Final Pot: $150.25

I've been in a slump lately and have noticed that a leak in my game is not letting go of a good hand that has gone bad. This might be one of them, but I am not sure if I could have done anything differently. I'm sure I have CO beat, but with MP's river c/r, there isn't much I beat. Do you let go of this hand with these odds?

I'm stuck.

Restlys · #2 08-07-2007, 08:00 PM

one way to deal with this situation that i explainned to another fellow poster 20 min ago is to over bet the pot cancelling the implied odds a drawing hand gets and boosting your overall expectation, if you find the right pot raise %, people with tptk will call, and thats good, but the goal of this idea is to nullify the odds of someone calling with a draw or if he draws villain is making a huge mistake.

The more draws are on the flop the more you have to bet to cancel the implied odds
Now if anyone calls your huge bet you either have to stack him/her off or use pot control and try to end it as smoothly as possible, depends how much variance you can handle and how much of a live one your opponent is.
but thats what poker is all about, putting your opponents in grey zone and create opportunities for them to make mistakes.

ABC of this specific hand: there is a flush/straigh draw against two opponnents, if you do not bet hard you will probably get outdrawn and because of that weak flop betting, you are putting yourself in a RIO situation.
the q makes a straigh and a flush, id fold the turn raise in both your situation and in mine because i WANT people to call my overbets, but when they hit i have to fold, most of the time it wont hit and the opponent finds himself in a situation where hes pot commited on the turn and will call anything to make his draw on the river, but by then 1/2 his stack will be gone

Milky · #3 08-07-2007, 08:02 PM

That turn card is so bad for you it's not even funny. I think I'd c/f the turn

crushednuts · #4 08-07-2007, 08:03 PM

I let this go on the turn. You basically beat nothing..saves you that lame decision on the river..and alot of money as you are good here never..

TheDunePariah · #5 08-07-2007, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I let this go on the turn. You basically beat nothing..saves you that lame decision on the river..and alot of money as you are good here never..

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what all of you are saying about folding the turn, which definitely has merit. But did you read CO's description? I feel very good that my hand beats CO's - are we folding the turn because MP is in the hand? If MP folds the turn bet, I'm calling most bets on the river from CO.