Survival play or go for win?

BrianBigNFun · #1 08-06-2007, 03:23 PM

I'm in a monthly home NLHE tournament- There are 10 games played January thru October. We have a Tournament of Champions in November- you get TOC points depending on your finish each game -1st gets 10pts, 2nd gets 7pts, 3rd gets 6pts, 4th gets 5pts etc. The person with the most points at the end gets 10% of the TOC pot and gets to host the TOC at his place (this is more important than you think- will explain further) The TOC pot is comprised of 5 dollars per buy in from each 30$ required to play or rebuy/add on (we have a cap of one rebuy and one add on so the max would be 15 bucks taken into the TOC pot per person) I think the TOC pot will end up around the neighborhood of 950-1000 dollars. So, the winner of the points gets about 90-100 bucks and has the tourney at his house where the top 8 points players play for 2 payouts- 70/30 chop for 1st and 2nd.

I have 3 wins and some top 8 (ie final table appearances) finishes and now have 43 points as a result.

The next guy has 33 points and we have 2 games left to play. There is a guy with 26pts who has a outside chance of winning the points but for discussion purposes let's leave him out of this.

The guy who is in 2nd lives an hour and 30 minutes away from me so it will be a small edge for me if the TOC is held at my place and not his.

The guy who is in 2nd is an ultra-tight player who will play until his chips will almost felt (that is -after the rebuy/add on period is over)- he only has one win so far and tends to place alot in the top 5 without winning too much. (trust me I have used his play to my advantage and get him to fold alot and steal blinds, etc.)

I have figured out that if I place higher than him in the next game I will be a lock for the TOC points lead.

So my question is this-

Do I go for the win as usual the next game or do I play a survival game in which I try to outlast the 2nd place TOC points holder?

You usually win $300-400 for 1st $120-200 for 2nd $0-80 for 3rd and $0-50 for 4th a game (depends on how many show- its anywhere from 8 to 16 people a game) I usually spend $60 dollars for the original buy in and add on- not too often have I needed to rebuy.

Humble Pie · #2 08-06-2007, 03:35 PM

You've got to go for the win. Too early for survival mode, even if second place guys wins this next tourney, you still have the overall points lead.

BrianBigNFun · #3 08-06-2007, 03:41 PM

Even if you consider my style is more win it big or go home early and his hang on and die slowly? He could conceivably tie me if he wins and I go out 9th or worse.

Takedown · #4 08-06-2007, 06:45 PM

Do your TOC points get you more chips at the finale?

BrianBigNFun · #5 08-06-2007, 07:05 PM

I wish...

I lobbied hard for that and no one else agreed to do that.

Maybe next year...

BrianBigNFun · #6 08-06-2007, 07:15 PM

BTW- last year even tho I came in 2nd in points I did win the TOC. I think a big reason is that everyone "forgot" that there were no rebuys (not forget really, more like didnt adjust their usually crappy play and it became even crappier) until the blinds started to smart alot quicker than they usually do. At that point I just started pushing more and stealing a bunch of blinds. The guy who I beat HU was the guy who was 1st in points that year and he's currently 2nd to me now. To say the least, we have a "friendly" rivalry and bragging rights is an important factor for me.

Takedown · #7 08-07-2007, 03:23 PM

I would say keep playing the way you have been, it sounds like you'll beat him. Keep an eye on his play too and see if he is doing anything out of the ordinary, chances is are he will be changing something up to try and catch you.