When to call a bet with a gutshot?

Fermion5 · #1 08-06-2007, 03:08 PM

Hello, here is the hand history. From what I've read pot odds don't matter that much because the implied odds are so great most of the time. And that it's better if the pot is multiway. I'm assuming if you have a gutshot to broadway its even more worthwhile because its likely someone will stack off with TPTK or two pair? Do any of you have rules for when you do and don't call with gutshots? Is there ever a reason to bet out with a gutshot? I have gotten accustomed to auto-folding them 95% of the time, but I guess this is a leak.

Does it matter whether there is an OED on the flop or not? For example, in the hand below there is no OED on the flop. But othertimes you have gutshots like AK on JT2. I guess someone will stack off to you if they have 89 and the Q comes, right? Or if you have 58 on 46K board. You could stack someone that has 35 if the 7 comes. But it can work against you as well. For example, if you have 23 and board is A56, if someone has 78 they will stack you if you get the 4. I guess the general rule of thumb is you want to be drawing to the nut straight when you have a gutshot draw, and preferably with a rainbow flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t1440)
Hero (t2700)
UTG+1 (t2920)
MP1 (t3575)
MP2 (t3090)
MP3 (t2900)
CO (t1195)
Button (t4588)
SB (t1152)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero calls t100, 2 folds, MP2 calls t100, 2 folds, Button calls t100, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t500) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB folds, BB checks, Hero bets t300, MP2 calls t300, Button calls t300, BB folds.

Turn: (t1400) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t1000, MP2 raises to t2000, Button raises to t4188, Hero calls t1300 (All-In), MP2 calls t690 (All-In).

River: (t10578) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t9080

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qs As (two pair, aces and queens).
MP2 has Qd 3d (two pair, queens and threes).
Button has Kh Jc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Button wins t10578.

SunyD · #2 08-06-2007, 03:56 PM

Looks like the button had implied odds and position to draw to the nut straight.

Regarding your play - I dont like your limp from UTG with AQs. You should have raised here. With you raising UTG, if button understands position, he may lay down the KJo preflop.

RAHZero · #3 08-06-2007, 05:28 PM

Technically speaking, you should draw to a gutshot whenever you're getting the proper implied odds to do so. Obviously you can't calculate implied odds exactly, so you have to do some guesswork, and so your two guidelines (draw to the nut straight and on a rainbow board), are very useful. In addition, you should consider the texture of the flop. In a raised pot, you should be far more willing to call a flop bet with JTs on a AK6 flop than with JTs on a 872 flop, since your implied odds are typically better in the first case (more likely someone has a big hand that will pay you off if you hit). If you estimate your implied odds to be 10:1 or better, call, if not, fold.

PantsOnFire · #4 08-06-2007, 08:03 PM

MP2 cost you that pot by not raising the flop big.

Anyways, here's the criteria I would use as button for the gutshot:

1. The draw is to the nuts.

2. The board is rainbow.

3. The pot is multiway.

4. There seems to be interest in the pot.

5. The stacks are deep enough.

6. The stacks in relation to pot size indicate that players could end up all-in.

All of these prerequisites seem to be met quite well in this hand.

I'd be pissed that MP2 didn't push button out of this pot with a flop raise.

Fermion5 · #5 08-07-2007, 12:59 AM

"I would use as button for the gutshot"

what does button mean in this sentence? as in criterion? thanks for the list. Yea mp2 played it worse than I did, but it was a donkament feeroll. I was planning to reraise preflop so thats why I limped UTG. Probably bad with a vulnerable hand like AQ. Thanks for the replies.

raze · #6 08-07-2007, 01:37 AM

'Button raises to t4188'

He means this player - he's speaking as if he were this player considering drawing to a gutshot

pzhon · #7 08-07-2007, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
From what I've read pot odds don't matter that much because the implied odds are so great most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Pot odds may be the most important concept in poker. They just aren't the end of the story when there are implied odds.

[ QUOTE ]

I have gotten accustomed to auto-folding them 95% of the time, but I guess this is a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]
Gutshots are worth more than you think. They are quite useful for semi-bluffs.

For example, suppose you call a raise in late position with 98s, and the flop is A65. The PFR makes a continuation bet of 2/3 of the pot. You don't have close to the pot odds to call for your draw, but it is quite likely that the PFR does not like his hand. This is a time when you might try to semi-bluff raise. The PFR will give up with KQ, QQ, and even hands as good as AJ. You might get called only 30% of the time. It's expensive when you get called since raising risks more than you stand to gain, but the gutshot makes the bluff attempt significantly less expensive.

Gutshots are also candidates for a play I call a semi-float. In the above situation, you could call the 2/3 pot bet based on the possibility that you can hit your hand, or possibly steal the pot if the PFR gives up. The possibility that you hit and win a big pot makes the call much less expensive than floating with nothing.

Neither of these are beginners' plays. Be careful not to use them too much. However, if you ever make pure bluffs or pure floats, consider substituting some of the gutshots you were folding.

[ QUOTE ]

I guess the general rule of thumb is you want to be drawing to the nut straight when you have a gutshot draw, and preferably with a rainbow flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's definitely a plus if you are drawing to the nuts. If there is a potential flush draw, that can be bad, but it is also a source of bluffing equity. You might bluff if the third card of a suit hits on the turn.

When you call with a gutshot, you have two sources of equity. Case 1 is that you hit your hand. Case 2 is that you miss. You need the total expected return from these cases to exceed the size of your call for calling to be better than folding.

Your Case 1 equity is improved if your opponent is more likely to have a strong hand. For example, in one hand, I raised preflop, made a continuation bet with a gutshot, and my opponent made a minimum raise. This not only gave me decent pot odds, it indicated that he had a strong enough hand to pay off a lot if I hit.

Your Case 2 equity is improved if your opponent often bets once and gives up, or if you can do something profitable if you pick up a pair on the turn. A gutshot with overcards is much stronger than a gutshot alone if you think the overcards may be good, and you may want to consider the possibility that pairing will make your hand good even without overcards.

govman6767 · #8 08-07-2007, 02:26 PM

great book for questions like this

HOld em on the come

PantsOnFire · #9 08-07-2007, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"I would use as button for the gutshot"

what does button mean in this sentence?

[/ QUOTE ]
I mean the guy who was on the button in this hand, the guy with the guthot facing incorrect immediate odds.