200 NL, QTs, villain checks behind turn, and raises river!

[SABR42]

Villain is a 16/10 TAG playing at a few of my tables. He seems pretty solid.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $208.65
BB: $185.40
UTG: $369.00
UTG+1: $214.40
MP1: $132.15
MP2: $155.45
MP3: $178.55
Hero (CO): $335.90
BTN: $233.05

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
5 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, BTN calls $8.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($19) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $13.00</font>, BTN calls $13.00

Turn: ($45) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
<font color="blue"> I decide to C/C here because of my backdoor clubs. I would HATE it if I led the turn and he shoved. </font>

River: ($45) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $29.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $80.00</font>, Hero calls $51.00
<font color="blue"> Given turn check/check, I think river is a really easy value-bet, as he should call with pretty much any pair after I checked turn. But then he raises! His line looks bluffy, so I call him. He would have had to slowplay the turn with a set or straight, and I just don't think that's very likely... </font>

[ToomuchCoffee]

Getting 3:1 I would call the river as well.
I think I would bet the turn anyway, but you know better how to play OOP.

[Makonnen]

Your flop bet looks small to me--was that intentional? I call the river as well. I think a better kicker just calls there, so unless he called your preflop with something silly, or got really, really lucky with 45, I think you're good.

[bmanning]

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop bet looks small to me--was that intentional? I call the river as well. I think a better kicker just calls there, so unless he called your preflop with something silly, or got really, really lucky with 45, I think you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

flop bet looks standard on this drawlesss of a board, even oop. whole hand looks good. did u get shown a 3?

[SABR42]

Results:

Villain had 54 suited and got tricky on the turn.

[billzfan86]

im not gonna lie i hate turn check becuase you wanna semi bluff there and even if u get raised off the hand you look like a spewing aggro-clown and will get looked up a lot lighter by anyone paying attention on the two streets where the most money goes in, and best case is you win a 45 dollar pot

How can it be bad here to lead at turn?

[Oki-Oki]

River is a super easy fold, no draw misses and the raise is so small that he obv wants a call. I doubt if any 1/2 regs are good enough to play any bluff this way.

Checking the turn is good. If you bet again and get called you are going to be in a pretty gross spot on any non-club river

[FrogMouth]

I like betting the turn as well, how often do you get raised by a bluff on the turn after showing so much agression? Plus you got outs against everything. I just think 85% of the time your taking it down with a bet.

As played I can't see a hand that you beat, I know your getting good odds but you're toast.

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Results:

Villain had 54 suited and got tricky on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn, I wish I posted in this thread when I first saw it because I thought that was the only hand he ever shows up with right away.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
im not gonna lie i hate turn check becuase you wanna semi bluff there and even if u get raised off the hand you look like a spewing aggro-clown and will get looked up a lot lighter by anyone paying attention on the two streets where the most money goes in, and best case is you win a 45 dollar pot

How can it be bad here to lead at turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

if it's for the reasons you said, then it couldn't really get much worse