river decision - 2 PAIR but flush got there

[Igloo9]

Villain is 33/3/1 over 50 hands. I seem to always have trouble with these...


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $55.00
UTG: $85.70
CO: $64.25
BTN: $61.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BTN calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, BTN calls $6.00, SB folds

Turn: ($18) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $13.00</font>, BTN calls $13.00

River: ($44) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $35.00</font>, HERO??

[Igloo9]

might seem like easy call, but villain is very passive.

[Capitan23]

The right play here is a fold. Villian is ultra passive, 3 cards to a flush, full house possibilities. Against many opponents I would call this but I think you gotta fold here.

[CyberianBull]

I probably fold. I think in this spot the only thing you are beating is a lower 2-pair -- and I am not surprised if he filled up by the turn. IMHO I am looking for a better spot.

[Nick C]

I think you should check the river and see what Button wants to do, with the plan of calling a modest bet but not a big one.

Once you're raised, it's really tempting to call getting almost 4:1, but I'm thinking he's going to have a flush most of the time and will tend to have AT when it's not a flush (meaning the odds you're getting aren't as good as they appear). There's nothing you're actually beating that isn't a bluff, and Villain has not been particularly aggressive at the table so far.

That said, the river does bring a card that he should figure will often scare you, given that your play up until now very much represents a PP or a T. But I still wouldn't expect this to be a bluff-raise very often.

[StubbornRussian]

No hand that you beat makes any sense here so its an easy fold. My question is: just how passive is somebody who has an agression factor of 1 that only opens 3 percent of his hands. Of course here its only over a small amount of hands but in general how do you adjust the aggression factor for these limper types.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
No hand that you beat makes any sense here so its an easy fold. My question is: just how passive is somebody who has an agression factor of 1 that only opens 3 percent of his hands. Of course here its only over a small amount of hands but in general how do you adjust the aggression factor for these limper types.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the answer to this, but I do think it's a good question, since when someone isn't raising much preflop, he isn't setting himself up for c-bet situations either.

In any event, the standard VP$IP/PFR/AF stats in general have more potential to be misleading in NL than in limit, I think, since those stats don't take bet and raise sizes into account. (I mean, a flop min-donkbet in a raised pot is practically a check, but it shows up as a bet in a player's AF.)

[a1Six5Six]

I'd c/f the river here... villian either filled up on the turn (most likely) or barring that hit his flush on the river. He's too passive to be running a play on you.

If your image is loose and/or aggressive he was probably letting you hang yourself.