Schneids' blog again

[J_V]

http://www.cardrunners.com/fusetalk/...cfm?forumid=33

Title of the blog is "quick thought I am debating"


I understand his overall point, but his math seems very weird to me. Specifically how he thinks he is 60/40 versus our opponents check-raise calling range.

It seems to be that he is way better off than that. Something like 75-25 maybe. Unless doughnutz is checking a lot of six out hands and/or folding them to a c/r, which i don't expect, this number doesn't seem right to me.

Somebody fill me in?

[Scary_Tiger]

It seems like most of doughnutz check/raise calling range would be like QT (9 outs, we have 82% equity) or A5 (5 outs, we have 90% equity.) with like a TT (we have 9 outs or 18% equity) mixed in.

So yeah, I don't get his math at all.

This is a quick stove of an imaginary check/raise calling range.

Board: Jh 8d 5c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.143% 74.34% 00.80% 5201 56.00 { 9s8s }
Hand 1: 24.857% 24.06% 00.80% 1683 56.00 { TT-99, 77, AQs+, A8s-A5s, KQs, KTs, QTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+, A8o-A5o, KQo, KTo, QTo, T9o }

[baronzeus]

i think 75/25 is a little too high. a lot of hands that he's betting the turn with and calling are hands that have strong draws built in (2 overcards+gutter, 1 overcard + flush draw, etc) in addition to better pairs, sets, straights, etc.

checkraising the turn also puts us in some bad spots on teh river. if a 9 hits we are always bet calling, but any Q/K/A kills us and our equity is literally shot.

i guess doughy might also call a checkraise with A high here but that seems like more of an outlier case.


60/40 sounds close to right. what's interesting is that after he bets the turn i'd say our equity is lower than that, maybe 50/50, possibly lesse


edit: scary i think you have way too many no pair no draw hands in there...

[Abbaddabba]

I think that a lot of the hands you're assigning to his call check/raise range are hands that will (at least some of the time) 3bet.

910 of diamonds (or any gutshot+flush draw) is such a sexy combo draw that i cant imagine anyone just calling with no plan B.


I dont think it's completely out of line to expect to see weaker draws than that make big plays here either.



Though i guess that doesnt affect your equity much.
Because those strong draws have almost exactly as much equity as the weighted average of their estimated range.

[shaniac]

a post or two below, that kitten is really cute.

[daryn]

when doughnutz bets the turn your equity is nowhere near 50/50 or worse, he bets every single turn, and will often call a checkraise with something like A3 high no pair no draw

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
when doughnutz bets the turn your equity is nowhere near 50/50 or worse, he bets every single turn, and will often call a checkraise with something like A3 high no pair no draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree with daryn here, seems like doughnutz has one of the biggest 3 betting range here of all the regulars? And in my experience he almost always bets the turn. I don't really know how often he calls with ace high, but my guess would be fairly often since he probably gets played back at a lot.

Im with the logic on why calling is better than 3 betting, in a lot of these spots, just not this spot against this player. Interesting blog though.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]

i guess doughy might also call a checkraise with A high here but that seems like more of an outlier case.



[/ QUOTE ]

Classic.

[Schneids]

I meant it to be "this type of situation," the example would've been better served probably if I had removed names. I also picked that hand because when baronzeus and I were discussing some "math based theory" that type of hand was the exact example I came up with for him where I figured my line of play would differ from a "math based" player (discussion before the hand had ever occurred)...

The 60-40 was kinda just estimating and also assuming that a lot of hands that we're losing to only call the checkraise. For instance, most peoples' 3-betting standards, which include a lot of ace highs, will check this turn if they're called on the flop (if they still have ace high). I think 60-40 is a good average equity against most high stakes players.

[OnkelHotte]

Is C/R flop bad in that spot?