Draw for Tourney Life

[gs3737]

20 person tourney, starting stacks of 5K. 3 spots get paid. Down to 5 people, blinds at 400/800, ante 100. I have 21K on button. Folded to me, I make it 2600 with KQ diamonds. BB, with 24K (a very aggressive player) calls. He is a good player, likes to put other players to the test Flop is J,7,4, two diamonds. Check to me, I make it 4K, he goes all-in. I still have 14K if I fold, but will >40% of the chips in play by winning this pot. Call or fold?

[paddymcg21]

Call all day long for me. Im not interested in 3rd. Your getting 2 to 1 here and id say ur no worse than 40% to win here. Good spot to cripple a potential threat. I call and expect to see 66,88,99 and TT a lot a well as AJ, KJ, QJ and JT. You could bust but in my opinion its an instacall against an aggressive opponent.

[Cornell Fiji]

this has a sit and go type payout where you should be passing up some +cEV edges on the bubble.

calling is definitely +cEV but it might be -$EV. To figure out for sure what you should do, you should calculate your equity against his range and then run an ICM analysis (for more info on ICM see the STT forum sticky)

If you have any questions about what I am saying here feel free to post what you are unsure of and hopefully someone helpful from the forum will explain the concepts further.

Welcome to the forums,
Steve

[ssnyc]

alternate line is to open push? There is a afir amount in the pot already and this is about as good a flop as we can hope for...why let him manuever you if you will be forced into a tough decision but will probably call...just open push and be happy with a call or fold

[SuperUberBob]

If he's done this before with mediocre hands, I'd snap call.

Otherwise, I fold. I really feel that villain is that doing this with the NFD or a pair + NFD and that would kill most of your outs.

[4CardStraight]

As played I really think this is a fold. It totally sucks, but you raised strong, from position, pre. You followed up with a super strong bet on the flop and signified committment to the hand. He check raised you knowing you were strong, knowing you probably liked the flop, and knowing you were getting decent odds to call for stacks.
So... He has a real hand here. A hand that likely punished many of your outs. YOu have plenty of a stack to open push at these blind levels if you fold. YOu have a stack big enough to even resteal with these blinds if you fold. Heck even if all he has is Ace King with the ace of diamonds, which is a pretty weak holding of all the hands he could be doing this with, it leaves you awefully thin.

Look at this equity chart with a wide array of holdings, none of which are slanted to diamonds:
Board: Jd 8d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.183% 46.18% 00.00% 37034 0.00 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 53.817% 53.82% 00.00% 43156 0.00 { 99+, AJs+, KJs, QJs, AJo+, KJo, QJo }

Yeah we have pot odds to call assuming his range is this generically wide, but I really think ICM will show this is not necessarily a winner. We have quite a big stack and we are going to go the felt with a LOT of BB for what we HOPE is a nine+out draw. Sure we might have as many as 15 outs, but thats not real likely. How bout if he has a set with a diamond, were at 8 outs. How bout if he has NFD, we have 6, How bout if he holds KK, down to 8 again, AA with the diamond 8... and with some of those he gets substiantial redraws as well.

I also wonder if checking behind on the flop isnt a better play, in late stages, with super deep stacks(relative to the field), when im heads up against the one guy that can bust me, I often like to see the turn with my questionable draws. If the turn blanks, my odds are not real great on the river so I can fold easier than on the flop if I am check raised, and at the same time, I am giving myself pretty good chances of making a hand on the turn and enticing my opponent to bet into me when the diamond hits, where he will find out too late that he is behind. Now I agree completely that betting gives us fold equity, and any fold equity we can get with our draw is a good thing, but mixing in some checks behind with some of our most questionable of draws I think is a good plan. This draw has a lot of outs against most all random hands, to be sure, but it also could be drawing quite thin against hands that check raise us.

[gs3737]

Hey guys, thanx for the feedback.
After much thought, I decided he wouldnt make this play on a bluff and laid it down. He was nice enough to show me 44 for a set. I ended up finishing 2nd, ironically to the villian in this hand.