2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop

[JrJordan]

CO is Dazarath, a 17/15 TAG who I haven't played very often against. Has played pretty straight forward and has folded to single button 3-bet earlier in the session.

SB is Reynolds XO and is 27/21. He's been especially LAG preflop and the overall table conditions are really aggressive. I decide to cold call preflop for deception vs. CO and to take advantage of a potential SB squeeze.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($401.25)
BB ($780)
UTG ($406)
MP ($768.10)
CO ($398)
Hero ($557.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $14, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $66</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $160</font>, Hero...

CO seems aware enough to know SB could be 3-betting with a pretty wide range preflop, but I'm confident he's not tricky enough to be making a pure 4-bet bluff.

[Syntec87]

puke fold I think, wow aweful spot, just that w/ odds and our wierd line, I think CO is comitted w/ AK, and the rest of his range is KK AA or the other QQ.

Maybe like 2% of the time he has JJ? Arbitrary number, just seems so rare, even with aggro SB, very interested to know results if there was a showdown

[JrJordan]

Quick equity calculation for CO's 4-betting range. FWIW I think he's aggro enough to 4-bet JJ a decent amount of the time.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

59,930,640 games 0.005 secs 11,986,128,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.366% 45.79% 01.58% 27440794 945878.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 52.634% 51.06% 01.58% 30598090 945878.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


---

Basically I'm a coinflip with CO vs. this range, but is the added equity in the pot enough to make up for the times SB actually has a hand too and overcalls?

[mdeck]

What makes you think he won't 4bet AA or particularly KK in this spot? Especially considering the aggressive nature of the game.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
CO seems aware enough to know SB could be 3-betting with a pretty wide range preflop, but I'm confident he's not tricky enough to be making a pure 4-bet bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch, I get about as much respect as... I don't know. Just name some crappy player.

POKERSTARS GAME #11265483126: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2007/08/02 - 03:13:30 (ET)
Table 'Lancelot' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Reynolds XO ($401.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Paulus_rus ($780 in chips)
Seat 3: PokerGuru ($406 in chips)
Seat 4: Hpboy10 ($768.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Dazarath ($398 in chips)
Seat 6: JrJordan ($557.40 in chips)
Reynolds XO: posts small blind $2
Paulus_rus: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Dazarath [7d Ad]
PokerGuru: folds
Hpboy10: folds
Dazarath: raises $10 to $14
JrJordan: calls $14
Reynolds XO: raises $50 to $64
Paulus_rus: folds
Dazarath: raises $96 to $160
JrJordan: folds
Reynolds XO: folds
Dazarath collected $146 from pot
Dazarath: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $146 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Reynolds XO (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Paulus_rus (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: PokerGuru folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hpboy10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Dazarath collected ($146)
Seat 6: JrJordan (button) folded before Flop

[JrJordan]

Son of a bitch HYACHCHCHCHCHCHA

[Fingerswinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Son of a bitch HYACHCHCHCHCHCHA

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe a faked HH to level you?
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Dazarath]

The HH is not fake.

To be honest, against most players, I'd shove the QQ and feel really good about it. If your read on me was that I wouldn't 4-bet bluff, then a fold seems pretty good, depending on how strong you think my range is. Of course, this is all obvious, so I don't know why I'm saying it.

On the other hand, your read that I knew the SB was 3-betting light was spot on. He had been 3-betting me a lot on multiple tables and I had not been playing back, so I figured this was a good spot to re-squeeze.

[Dazarath]

Actually, scratch that. I'd shove still unless it's like one of those 15/10 nits I've seen around recently. As you showed above, with JJ in my range, you're fine, as you're putting in around 386 to win 866, so you need 44% equity. Even if you give me the range of AA-QQ, AK, you've still got 40% equity. (Pokerstove calculation below) Actually, if you make it KK+, it's almost the same.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Once you weigh in the fact that players 4-bet AK a higher percent of the time than AA/KK, which they call sometimes for deceptive purposes, that should bump your equity high enough. Note: when I say higher percentage of the time, I don't mean from your point of view. Obviously, since there are more combos of AK, you'll see it more often. What I mean is from my point of view. Many players will 4-bet AK much closer to 100% of the time they are 3-bet than they will with AA/KK. Sorry for the poorly constructed sentence, but I hope you get what I mean.

EDIT: Oh, I forgot to mention that you should take into consideration the chance that the SB has QQ beaten, but I'm too tired to attempt that and I probably wouldn't know where to start anyways.

[bigbabyjesus]

Man, I call on the button against CO raises more than 90% of msnl, but I hate it with QQ. Your hand is just so sick strong against his calling of your reraises range.

That said, I sometimes do call hands like AA/KK/QQ here when I know some aggro TAG is in the blinds. It is with 100% of intention of getting it all in versus a squeeze.