$16T: Push This Into the Big Stacks? (bubble play)

[RobertJohn]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t100/t200
(Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2064
Hero: t1750
SB: t4666
BB: t5020

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero ?

Hey guys, this spot right here is giving me a little trouble.

I know image is huge here and since I played pretty snug up to this point I should have a tight one. I did shove a couple times prior to this hand, however, including once over a limper, and I didn’t show my cards, so I might be perceived as aggressive.

My estimate of their calling ranges:

BB: 44+,A8s+,KJs+,A8o+,KJo+ (15%)
SB: 55+,A8s+,KQs,A9o+ (11%)

Shoving Q6s here shows a +0.1% profit as opposed to folding, and SNGPT states that pushing and folding are “both reasonable plays” since it is so close.

However, since ICM doesn’t take into account the strategic loss of my FE within the next few orbits, I think the argument for a push gains merit.

Is this one of those spots where ICM underreps the value of a push?

Also, I always tend to think that the low stakes players might call looser than they should, so I toyed around with a looser range and found this result.

Their calling ranges:

BB: 22+,A5s+,KTs+,QJs,A8o+,KJo+ (17%) [adding 22-33,A5s-A7s, and KTs]
SB: 55+,A7s+,KJs+,A8o+,KQo (14%) [adding A7s, KJs, A8o, and KQo]

Now shoving Q6s shows a –0.3% difference from folding.

I’m trying to reconcile these two competing concepts:

a) Since the loose big-stacked blinds at the low stakes are more likely to call my shove with hands like K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the equity of a play switches from + to – rather sharply so you have to think hard about these kind of spots, right?

b) ICM analysis might understate the value of pushing when your FE is eroding.

I’m wondering what your default play would be and why? Also, how do you think these two ideas play into this particular hand?