100NL T9s against terrible LAG

[Mike MacIntosh]

Villain is 40/21 over 100ish hands, and I am running 22/19. He is a truly terrible lag, min-reraising a ton pf.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($150.40)
Button ($78.70)
SB ($295.45)
BB ($100)
UTG ($423.95)
Hero ($106.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($15) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, SB calls $20.

Turn: ($75) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $10</font>, Hero ???

Obviously my standard line here is to shove. However I am not sure how much FE we really have against this player on this board.

Thoughts?

[CCx]

Saying "zero" FE here is pretty finite, so let's say "very minimal" .. he's not folding a pair, straight draw or obviously better - I think you'll get paid on the river if you hit, so I'm not too excited about shoving the turn against this opponent... call, re-evaluate river.

[mason55]

i have no idea what his range is here but you have sooooo much equity. you're still 50/50 against a ton of stuff, ahead of other stuff, and barely behind some stuff. i shove here anyway because it sucks if we call and he decides to make some random shove on the river and our 9 was actually good.

[terp]

it's really hard to put him on a range but i think guys like this will fold &lt;Kx a lot here. we have so much equity that it's probably worth just going for

[Hince]

I think you have some FE, and you really don't need a lot of it to shove in this spot. There is enough in the pot that I don't want to be folding the river to some badly played pair of sixes or something. I like a shove.

[infinite_loop]

Why not raise more on the flop?

Yeah, it looks like an easy shove.

[mason55]

o ya make a real raise on the flop. a psr ($45) should make him push or fold which is what you want really

[JohnAndersen]

I think the stack sizes here start to get a bit awkward with a raise that large, it doesn't leave us with much on the turn compared to the pot. Is that what we are going for? Making a commiting bet on this flop? It doesnt seem like a terrible idea against this guy

[mason55]

if you make it $45 then he will USUALLY push or fold which is good. if he does call, the pot is $105 on the turn with $45 behind and we're sticking it in no matter what happens. the only reason to raise smaller on the flop would be so that you have more equity if you shove the turn, which is a valid reason, but if that's what you want then you can't question what to do on the turn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i'd rather put as much money in on the flop though and make the turn a no brainer.

[Mike MacIntosh]

For the sake of arguement lets say we have 36% equity against his calling range.

Pokerstove

Board: 8s Js 9h Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.364% 36.36% 00.00% 16 0.00 { Ts9s }
Hand 1: 63.636% 63.64% 00.00% 28 0.00 { KcQd }

Lets calcualte our EV when called.

EV call = .36(154.50) - .64(69.50)
EV = 55.62 - 44.48
EV = +11.14

Why is shoving here auotmatically +EV?

We are risking 69.50 to win 154.50. Which means we only need 31% equity when called to breakeven on a shove.


Shoving here is basically printing money.