50 NL- Overpair on QT7

ajml · #1 07-31-2007, 10:40 PM

Villain is 18/13/2 over about 120 hands. The only big pot I have seen him play was when I 3-bet his button raise out of the BB to isolate a short stack, the short stack called and he shoved for 100bb with AA (all preflop). His initial preflop raise with a limper that hand was to 2.50, I think I can discount AA here.

That's really my only read here, fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($49.70)
Hero ($50.80)
UTG ($39.85)
MP ($92.45)
CO ($50)
Button ($95.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $0.50, MP raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $9, UTG folds, MP calls $6.

Flop: ($19.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP raises to $83.45...

jstill · #2 07-31-2007, 10:53 PM

id fold... u probably already knew that tho

fwiw i dont think ur read from the AA hand is too useful here and since this hand is HU it doesnt mean he mite not 4 bet AA some dont I dont know why exactly esp in position.

unless u have a reason to believe he thinks AQ is the nuts here or he ll shove oesds or fds ect (which his stats would have ut hinkin neither of those are true) just muck

edit didnt realize it was only like 25 more to u to win 50

closer now I still dont think these players move u in tho with QJ KQ or even AQ plus u having the Ks and the Q and T both being spades take away like all the super draws besides AJss. And even if u had red KK and the Q is red if his range is just big draws and sets or AA u should fold gettin 2:1

Jigsaws · #3 07-31-2007, 11:09 PM

meh, this sucks because of his stats and because of the passive nature of 50nl. but as a rule of thumb, you don't fold overpairs in 3bet flops on wet flops like these, especially with half your stack already in there. we are getting really good odds here. i think i'd call but i'm not happy about it.

Nick C · #4 08-02-2007, 06:46 PM

There's a really good chance you're up against a set, but I would call getting ~3:1.

AZK · #5 08-02-2007, 06:48 PM

don't know why you think you can discount AA here, in any case, normally when I put 20% of my stack in pre and flop an overpair i'm going broke.

JDalla · #6 08-02-2007, 11:04 PM

I'd call.

inferno · #7 08-03-2007, 07:03 AM

you have some backdoors and maiby the best hand, meh you might get intimidated by the allin, I was thinking fold also firstly but yeah 3:1 is le call

4_2_it · #8 08-03-2007, 09:20 AM

Hold your nose and call. As AZK mentioned, it's not a leak to go broke here.