NBA regular season wins

[holeplug]

Got these off Pinnacle. Any numbers jump out at anyone?

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
New Jersey Nets 46.5
Philadelphia 76ers 41.5
New York Knicks 40.5
Boston Celtics 40.5
Toronto Raptors 28.5

Central Division
Detroit Pistons 52.5
Indiana Pacers 52
Cleveland Cavaliers 49.5
Chicago Bulls 43.5
Milwaukee Bucks 35

Southeast Division
Miami Heat 57.5
Washington Wizards 39.5
Orlando Magic 33.5
Atlanta Hawks 20
Charlotte Bobcats 19.5


Western Conference

Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets 49.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 44.5
Seattle SuperSonics 43
Utah Jazz 34
Portland Trail Blazers 28

Pacific Division
Sacramento Kings 49.5
Golden State Warriors 41
Los Angeles Lakers 38
Los Angeles Clippers 38
Phoenix Suns --

Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs 57.5
Houston Rockets 53.5
Dallas Mavericks 52.5
Memphis Grizzlies 42.5
New Orleans Hornets 20.5

[the_main]

raptors over 28.5

[TheGame1020]

Lakers over 38

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
Lakers over 38

[/ QUOTE ]

I agreed, and so I checked the site.

The line is actually Over 41.5 -115

[20Five]

pistons under...

most of the other teams in their division got stronger, and they lost larry brown

[ThePenguin]

Clippers under. They're still the dogs of the Pacific. Mobley helps, but you can write off Cassel now, and they always have injury problems.

[ThePenguin]

[ QUOTE ]
raptors over 28.5

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. This line is just too close. They won 33 games last season, and they are the only team in the east (aside from maybe the celtics) that didn't improve talent wise. They should be worse this year unless Bosh explodes as a superstar.

[llabb]

Does the NY 40.5 line stand out to the rest of you as well? I'm thinking the line's inflated due to all the NY bettors, because it looks ridiculous to me. The Under 40.5 at +114 looks very good to me.

Last year, NY won just 33 games. They got worse as the season wore one, and had a miserable finish. After some early season success, they only went 17-32 for the latter part of the season, and finished the year going a very ugly 4-11.

They perhaps got marginally better, adding Q, Curry, and some promising rookies, but losing Kurt Thomas, Tim Thomas, and Sweetney, with Houston finally retiring.

Larry Brown will also help, but this does not look like an 8 game improvement to me. In the East, 5 teams are clearly better: Miami, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, and New Jersey. 4 teams should be better: Washington, Boston, Chicago, and Philadelphia. NY is around the level of Orlando and Milwaukee, putting it around the 10th-12th place spots in the conference, which should be far below 0.500 records. Once the team is clearly out of the playoffs, it is even more likely to develop their younger non-starter players and lose games towards the end of the season.

Am I missing anything here?

[llabb]

Also, Washington at 39.5 stands out to me. The team won 45 games last season, consistently above 0.500 almost the entire season.

They lost Hughes and Kwame, but added Caron Butler and Antonio Daniels, while Kwame was not much of a factor for them anyway. Washington is is still a young, improving team that has the potential to perform better than last year's record, and it is also projected by most as a playoff team, which should put them above 0.500.

The Pinnacle Over 39.5 is a good total to go over, but is -123, so I prefer to take the Intertops Over 40.5 at +100.

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I also like 2 other plays, but they are more marginal.

Orlando Over 33.5. They won 36 last year, and did not lose anyone important. Many are projecting Dwight Howard, who had a strong rookie campaign, to approach superstar status this year, on a similar trajectory to Amare Stoudamire, who broke out in his 2nd year.

Denver Over 49.5. Denver won 49 last year, and after Coach George Karl took over the team, it went on an amazing 32-8 run to close the season. It did not lose anybody, and adds Voshon Lenard (back from injury) and Earl Watson. With the most favorable home court advantage in the league, it should improve its record this season.

[Clarkmeister]

Bulls, Nuggets, Timberwolves under

Wizards, Jazz, Lakers over