Sabermetric MLB Picks - August

[dudeimstoked]

Hey everyone,
This thread will be for August MLB and is a continuation of my other thread found here: Thread

All of my picks are based off of statistical analysis of the hitters and pitchers. I do not pay attention to hot streaks, trends, when a team is "due" or anything of that nature.

I encourage questions and comments in the thread, it shows that I'm not completely wasting my time by posting my picks.

My model is based a lot off of Michael Murray's Book, Betting Baseball 2007, but in my opinion he has an imperfect way of determining power ratings for teams, so I am using a different variation of it. I also use different statistics to compute the pitching strength of the starting pitchers.

All of my lines will come off of Betjm, 5Dimes, or Bodog because they are widely available to all and as of now they are the only places where I have accounts and they also offer XML line feeds.

Picks will be posted on my website, www.puresabermetrics.com first.
I will then post the picks in this thread later that night so I'm not making 3 or 4 posts with plays in it.
I have incorporated a small amount of line shopping into my spreadsheet with BetJM and 5Dimes so I will show where I found the line on my website only (I don't want to worry about the forum rules and all that crap in this thread). The main problem here being that Betjm puts lines up around 12pm PST and 5Dimes much later, so I imagine that most of the lines will be from BetJM.

I will post results of the day daily and keep YTD statistics. I started publicly posting around the All-Star break, so any big up or down day greatly influences the ROI (as seen on 7/29 and 7/22).

Current YTD Results (does not include results for7/31):
55-61-1 (+2.71 units; ROI: 1.90%)

Follow these picks at your own risk.

[dudeimstoked]

Wednesday MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates +108
Atlanta Braves -138 (1.5)
Milwaukee Brewers +101 (1.5)
San Francisco Giants +102 (2)

[B00T]

good luck in your picks but if someone sees this on your site:

Added Plays (These plays are not as strong as the others, but I’m feeling lucky)
Arizona Diamondbacks +128
San Francisco Giants +100
Colorado Rockies +105

You seem to lose all credibility in doing what you accomplish. I understand what you are going after, and the context that you wrote this in, but I wouldnt encourage doing that anymore in the future.

[dudeimstoked]

Yea true, the reason i posted those picks is I usually only post picks that have a 5% edge or better. Those were about 4%.

[B00T]

I didnt mean it in a negative way, but since your system seems to have some solid reasoning behind it, I would focus on building the rapport based on that.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
good luck in your picks but if someone sees this on your site:

Added Plays (These plays are not as strong as the others, but I’m feeling lucky)
Arizona Diamondbacks +128
San Francisco Giants +100
Colorado Rockies +105

You seem to lose all credibility in doing what you accomplish. I understand what you are going after, and the context that you wrote this in, but I wouldnt encourage doing that anymore in the future

[/ QUOTE ]

To be fair BOOT he did include these in his record and 2 of the 3 lost.

[dudeimstoked]

Tuesday Results
3-2-0 (+0.55 units)

[dudeimstoked]

Added Play for Wednesday
Florida Marlins -115

Edit: Also, the Giants line is moving towards a 3 unit play. Hopefully it moves more tomorrow.