hypothetical

[ryanj247]

your bankroll is $200. you can play a maximum of 1000 hands of poker. if your bankroll reaches $400, you will receive a $1 million bonus.

what's your plan? what game(s) would you play? same game the entire 1000 hands, or adjust according to your progress? would you play standard solid poker, or would you do something out of the ordinary?

also, how does this change if your bankroll is $2000, and you receive the $1 million if your bankroll reaches $2200, but are disqualified if your bankroll drops below $1800?

[mvdgaag]

I ask my neighbour to go allin on the river with nothing untill I'm at $400. I'll give him $5K.

Edit: serious answer comming as soon as I've had the time to think about this

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
I ask my neighbour to go allin on the river with nothing untill I'm at $400. I'll give him $5K .

Edit: serious answer comming as soon as I've had the time to think about this

[/ QUOTE ]
Tightwad. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[PantsOnFire]

I would play full table SnGs. With 1000 hands, and an average of 60-80 hands in an SnG, I predict I could play about 12-16 of them.

Probably, I'd start at the $40 buyin and play those unless I dropped to $80 (i.e. three shots at the money). Then, I'd switch to $10 buyin. After three shots at that and no cash-in, I'd switch to NL cash and play really tight.

With 100 hands left to go, depending on my bankroll, I'd look for an SnG that payed $400 or more for first and take one last shot. If I couldn't find an SnG that paid this, I'd find the highest stakes NL cash I could enter with my remaining backroll and start to gamble with some small stack play.

[Dangeresque]

Hmm... I think I'd have to play four tables of 50 NL for about 800 hands, and then, If I'd failed to get up to $400 by then, I'd consolidate into one stack. The ability to double your stack at NL is very valuable, and the huge overlay would make my NL deficiencies, as compared to limit, pale in comparison.

[mce86]

NL200.
1000 hands assuming standard winrate, you should get close to 1000 as long as things go well.

[mce86]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm... I think I'd have to play four tables of 50 NL for about 800 hands, and then, If I'd failed to get up to $400 by then, I'd consolidate into one stack. The ability to double your stack at NL is very valuable, and the huge overlay would make my NL deficiencies, as compared to limit, pale in comparison.

[/ QUOTE ]
Youd have to run at 30PTBB/100 over 800 hands to make it!

[da_fume]

[ QUOTE ]
NL200.
1000 hands assuming standard winrate, you should get close to 1000 as long as things go well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you're saying a standard winrate is 25 ptbb/100. Also, you can't reload so you can't really take advantage of +EV situations without affecting your winrate later, for example peeling off 4BB to set-mine with 88. I don't really have a solution in mind right now, but this one seems the most risky, although it may be the only realistic one.

Edit: I think I understand what you're saying after re-reading your post so you can disregard my first sentence.

[ryanj247]

[ QUOTE ]
I would play full table SnGs. With 1000 hands, and an average of 60-80 hands in an SnG, I predict I could play about 12-16 of them.

Probably, I'd start at the $40 buyin and play those unless I dropped to $80 (i.e. three shots at the money). Then, I'd switch to $10 buyin. After three shots at that and no cash-in, I'd switch to NL cash and play really tight.

With 100 hands left to go, depending on my bankroll, I'd look for an SnG that payed $400 or more for first and take one last shot. If I couldn't find an SnG that paid this, I'd find the highest stakes NL cash I could enter with my remaining backroll and start to gamble with some small stack play.

[/ QUOTE ]

is my math correct: wouldn't a winning player expect to be up only about $50 or so after 14 $40 SNG's (~1000 hands @ ~70 hands/SNG)? is it likely enough that you would, for example, have one win and one 2nd in your first three, to take the risk that you finish out of the money on 2 or 3 of your first 3 and cripple your bankroll? (also, it seems like you would want to play a 10 player $55+$x or something so that you could earn the bonus straight away if you won your first SNG)

[ryanj247]

[ QUOTE ]
NL200.
1000 hands assuming standard winrate, you should get close to 1000 as long as things go well.

[/ QUOTE ]

a player who averages +$200 per 1000 hands of NL200 is pretty much crushing the game. but even for that player, i would guess that it's quite likely that he will go broke or never reach +$200 in 1000 hands w/ a $200 bankroll.

is there no plan that would be more likely to succeed?

if this is the best plan, then how would you approach, for example, situations where the most +EV play is to push (or call a push), but you expect to be only a small favorite over the range of your opponent?