NL100 Is this a +EV c/r bluff?

[mack848]

Before slating this as spew; put him on a range and do an EV calc. I will post my calcs after a few responses.



Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)


Hero (UTG+1): $106.00 (my image is TAG, I play 15/9)
BTN: $101.40 (21/8 after only 30 hands - I assumed he was TAG [most are in this game!])


Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $10.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: ($21.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $10.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $22.00</font>

[CazicT]

I put him on QQ+, AK

So

(+31.5*0.44)+(-22*0.56)=+1.48

I don't think it is quite this simple though as there is a chance he will call this with QQ or KK and also a chance he would flat call with AA and we would hit a 3rd 8 for instance and we might lose more or he might just flat call with AK and we have a small chance to draw out on him. I'll have to contemplate the likelihood of these situations a bit. I suspect the calc will stay close to even EV. Plus there is a possibility he could have 3 bet with JJ too wich helps us.

[CazicT]

After thinking a bit more, I think the times he flat calls probably even out so it is a matter of whether he will fold at least 41% of the time.

I think this is not going to happen if his range is QQ+, AK. He would have to fold his KK and QQ a very high percentage of the time.

If we add JJ to his range, I think this becomes barely +EV unless you think this guy is the type who hates to get rid of KK in which case it is negative. Basically, if he dumped JJ and QQ almost all the time, he'd only have to dump KK like 30% to make it +EV.

I think on sum, this play is probably -EV against most players you come across. You need to be up against some one who will both 3 bet with JJ and also be willing to let go of a hand against a small raise.

If you think he might 3 bet even lighter, then your results may vary.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
He would have to fold his KK and QQ a very high percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the crux of it. Who calls a flop c/r in a re-raised pot here without an Ace - would you ? (I have assumed Villain is a TAG).

I put his range preflop as JJ+, AK. When an Ace flops, this means that he will only have an Ace in his hand 45% of the time. If he re-raises TT or worse, it is (obviously) even lower.

Let's say he folds KK, QQ, JJ 100% of the time.

EV= (0.45*-22)+(0.55*31.5)= +$7.4

If he calls/re-raises 25% of the time with KK and QQ, but still folds JJ 100% of the time, it works out that he will call 55% of the time (and we give up).

EV= (0.55*-22) + (0.45*31.5) = +$2.1

[mce86]

Obv. your putting him on KK-TT...and no ace.
If he's weaker than an ace, he might lay it down.
Im assuming your gonna lead the turn if he calls, or do you give up?

[mce86]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He would have to fold his KK and QQ a very high percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the crux of it. Who calls a flop c/r in a re-raised pot here without an Ace - would you ? (I have assumed Villain is a TAG).

I put his range preflop as JJ+, AK. When an Ace flops, this means that he will only have an Ace in his hand 45% of the time. If he re-raises TT or worse, it is (obviously) even lower.

Let's say he folds KK, QQ, JJ 100% of the time.

EV= (0.45*-22)+(0.55*31.5)= +$7.4

If he calls/re-raises 25% of the time with KK and QQ, but still folds JJ 100% of the time, it works out that he will call 55% of the time (and we give up).

EV= (0.55*-22) + (0.45*31.5) = +$2.1

[/ QUOTE ]
Your forgetting that if you're using this line more than once a session, your gonna get looked up a percentage of the time. That would change your outcomes im sure.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
Obv. your putting him on KK-TT...and no ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I'm putting him on JJ+, AK (maybe TT+)


[ QUOTE ]

If he's weaker than an ace, he might lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think he will lay it down the vast majority of the time


[ QUOTE ]
Im assuming your gonna lead the turn if he calls, or do you give up?

[/ QUOTE ]
I give up without hitting 2 pair or trips.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
Your forgetting that if you're using this line more than once a session, your gonna get looked up a percentage of the time. That would change your outcomes im sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a 'once per table week' type of move for me.

[CazicT]

I'd worry more about how he might perceive you aggression level in general than this specific play since this specific situation comes up relatively rarely.

If we had some reads against this guy I think we could bring this play more solidly into +EV.

For instance,

If we knew he likes to three bet light, although if AQ creeps into his range this is bad for us

If we knew he routinely CB's 1/2 the pot, it would be more likely he doesn't have an ace

If we knew he loves to slowplay his monsters, we could be more conident he doesn't have AA

Against the people I normally play against, I don't think this is +EV, but maybe at NL100 it is.

[Warren Harding]

There's another question we always need to ask: if it's +EV, is it the most profitable option? I think leading $15-22, or CR to more than just the minimum are both more +EV than your line. This dry flop does not need trickery. Your line has the advantage that we get to see opponent act; thus if you have a flop betting pattern read, your line is beneficial.

FWIW, 20/6 is ambiguous over 30 hands. S/he could be 30/15, 30/4, 15/4, 15/10 and everything in between. Thus, I put him/r on 99+, AQ+, broadway SC, with an emphasis on TT+, AK, AQs. You are betting 22 to win 32.5, so you need a fold/ suckout 40%. Your 5 outs are usually good so that's 10%. Luckily, the cbet (&lt;1/2 pot) looks weak, so I think the 30% is there. +EV