is my check raise bluff a good risk?

[hamnegger]

9 handed

Full Tilt Poker Game #3109169486: $2 + $0.25 Rebuy (23672884), Table 13 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:15:36 ET - 2007/07/31
Seat 5: Yobshack (10,089)

Seat 7: hero (3,520)
Seat 8: robray96 (8,197)
hero posts the small blind of 100
robray96 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero[Kd Jd]

4folds

Yobshack raises to 600
1 fold

hero calls 500
robray96 folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 2c 2s]

hero checks
Yobshack has 15 seconds left to act (you think this is weakness?)

Yobshack bets 800

hero raises to 2,920, and is all in

[EscapePlan9]

Fold pre-flop.

IMO timing tells are only reliable if you either have seen him do it multiple times with the same types of hands, or if the action is very quick. Delays could mean anything - sometimes I'm busy on other tables for instance and have to take a moment to act. Sometimes I have to think about the types of hands he has and how to get the most value from them.

One significant timing tell I know is when someone insta-calls your bets. This almost ALWAYS is a weak hand just screaming out "PLZ STOP BETTING". I've routinely continued betting into them with ATC in these situations (3-barrel bluff FTW) and it has never failed on me. With a bigger hand they tend to try to think how to extract maximum value - or to feign weakness with a delay. When you continue betting against someone snap calling your bets, they will fold most of the time.

As played, I fold the flop too. 522 flop is not a great one for making these plays, especially when you give him great odds.

[SuperUberBob]

To me, this is either shove or fold preflop. I hate calling here. KJ is very susceptible to domination and makes the second best hand pretty frequently when it does hit.

Basically, if villain has been opening a lot of pots from LP and making a lot of steal plays, I shove. If villain has been playing pretty solid poker, I fold.

[drzen]

I'm only a moderate player, so maybe I just don't get it. I don't understand why we called a raise OOP with a hand that will need to improve to feel good about, and I don't understand why we're pretending to have a flush draw.

The key to a bluff is the story. What's your story here? You called with what? And you have what now?

I guess you could have a pair. But you can't have called for set value and you didn't push over, so that kind of narrows it down. Maybe a pair of 4s?

Nah. I put you on OCs bluffing or an FD, and I'm calling you with quite a lot of what I raised with. If I'm wrong and you have something retarded like A5, oh well, I'm still thinking it was a decent call with my AT, with a very decent pot to be won.

And no, I don't think it's weakness that time runs down. Maybe he's reading something, doing his homework or otherwise distracted.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm only a moderate player, so maybe I just don't get it. I don't understand why we called a raise OOP with a hand that will need to improve to feel good about, and I don't understand why we're pretending to have a flush draw.

The key to a bluff is the story. What's your story here? You called with what? And you have what now?

I guess you could have a pair. But you can't have called for set value and you didn't push over, so that kind of narrows it down. Maybe a pair of 4s?

Nah. I put you on OCs bluffing or an FD, and I'm calling you with quite a lot of what I raised with. If I'm wrong and you have something retarded like A5, oh well, I'm still thinking it was a decent call with my AT, with a very decent pot to be won.

And no, I don't think it's weakness that time runs down. Maybe he's reading something, doing his homework or otherwise distracted.

[/ QUOTE ]

#2

[Rocco]

Unless Villain has played very tight PF, I shove this in a heartbeat. As played, your flop shove was really bad. You have practically no FE here, and Villain won't fold any hand that has the slightest piece of that board.

[Borys313]

You cannot hurt his stack and given flop texture he will call you with any PP and also with A high alot.
I believe that you can "bluff" only hands like T9 suited which of course are part of his range but generally expect to get looked up alot.

[shadypac]

Ya im not making this play here, id rather do it on something like Q54 board or something dry like that. The only time i ever check raise on these boards is if I wanna mix it up with a big pair. Villain is not putting you on a big pair nor is he folding an overpair. Could work if you figure him for air (which you usually cant) but any PP he has he will usually think is good.

[hamnegger]

heres my reasoning:

1. kj s is too strong to fold against a pos 5 raiser but not the hand i want to committ my stack to preflop. i want to play and evaluate.

2. the flop misses a good part of his range.

3. im representing a made hand and i have just enough to get him to fold.

4. if he calls i probably have 6 outs.

5. i did not want to lead bet bluff bc he has more options, here ive left him 2 choices

6. i followed my gut which said the play would work. my gut is usually right but i don't follow it enough. especially in 2 spots a) i smell weakness but im weak so i don't make the gutsy move b) im strong but i sense someone is stronger but i don't fold. b is more costly but both are my weaknesses.
he folded.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
heres my reasoning:

1. kj s is too strong to fold against a pos 5 raiser but not the hand i want to committ my stack to preflop. i want to play and evaluate.

2. the flop misses a good part of his range.

3. im representing a made hand and i have just enough to get him to fold.

4. if he calls i probably have 6 outs.

5. i did not want to lead bet bluff bc he has more options, here ive left him 2 choices

6. i followed my gut which said the play would work. my gut is usually right but i don't follow it enough. especially in 2 spots a) i smell weakness but im weak so i don't make the gutsy move b) im strong but i sense someone is stronger but i don't fold. b is more costly but both are my weaknesses.
he folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. He doesn't know you have KJ. You're missing with KJ a ton of times on the flop and you are spewing too much of your chips by calling.

2. He has 10K in chips and you're going to be clueless so often. Also, the flop misses too much of your range as well. And you really have to have a great flop for things to work out for you. This one was great if he didn't have a pocket pair. But if he insta fires 800, then what? Go with your gut still?

3. See #2: More often than not, you're going to hate the flop you see and you're going to be in a lot of trouble.

4. Fine.

5. Fine.

6. Fine - go with your gut. But, there is a fine line between making really questionable plays and going with your gut and making the best play and going with your gut. Push preflop here.

Barry