Top set vs. longshot straight

[Cavok]

Villain is loose enough to play anything, 65/7/.7 over 100 hands.

Against a slightly tighter villain where I could disregard 2,5 and 5,7 I would definetly re-raise the river but is it safe to do that here?

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Cavok is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Cavok raises</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Cavok bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Cavok bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Cavok 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button caps</font>, Cavok calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (12.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Cavok bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, Cavok ?

Results:
Final pot: 16.25BB

[Wolfram]

Don't think about whether it's "safe". It's never safe to raise unless you hold the nuts. Just think about if it's +EV.

Villain is basically a spazz, so he'll probably play a lot of hands this strongly. Maybe he thinks his 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is the current nuts.

He's more likely to be holding a lower set, than he is to have 57 or 52s (even a 65/7/.7 is folding 52o to a raise preflop), so I think you'll gain EV by 3betting the river. However, if you aren't planning to b/3b, then c/r should gain more value than b/c.

Edit:
Hmm, did some pokerstoving, and this seems to be very close to breakeven. It all depends on what combos of 57, 57s, 25, 25s you include in his range, and whether you include any 2pairs in his range. His stats indicate that he plays rather passively, but ime it's very hard to predict post flop behavior from villains with these kinds of stats.

In the nightmare scenario, where we include all the straight possibilities in his range and the lower sets, we're 40% dogs, so raising would be bad. But I think we can elimintate at least 52o, and probably 52s and 75o too, and we can probably include some 2pairs so then we become a considerable favorite and capping the river will be +EV.

[Absolution]

I think the only hand you can really discount is 52o. I can see him calling with all of the others. I'd probably just call the river.

[yourface]

if you don't want to b/3b then c/r river.
I don't like leading vs most villains because you get your money in worse overall

[Romulet]

He probably has an ace and thinks he's got you, pop him again.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
He probably has an ace and thinks he's got you, pop him again.

[/ QUOTE ]

The ace changes nothing here.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only hand you can really discount is 52o. I can see him calling with all of the others. I'd probably just call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
The big question is whether we discount 2-pair from his range or not. If we include any 2-pair in his range, we're a huge favorite:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,552 games 0.005 secs 510,400 games/sec

Board: 3h 6s 4s Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.571% 72.57% 00.00% 1852 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 27.429% 27.43% 00.00% 700 0.00 { 66, 44-33, K6s, K4s-K3s, 75s, 64s-63s, 52s, 43s, K6o, K4o-K3o, 75o, 64o, 43o }


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[secretprankster]

Checkraise-call seems to be the appropriate # of bets. Though it's lame when he (correctly) checks two-pair behind.

[Cavok]

I don't want to c/r here due to villain checking behind all two-pair hands and overpairs when the ace falls, so to make sure I get at least some money from him I think I have to bet out.

I did just call his raise but the right play is probably to 3-bet him after I see the results from Pokerstove, thanks guys!

[MartynasD]

U know.In your limits i probably will cap river.u loosing only to the str8ght.But it`s so many 2 pairs or smaller sets possible