Quiz#20 Same Concept

[greatwhite]

The big blind is a loose passive player and Stox is on the button with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Preflop:
Stox raises, bb calls

Flop(4.5 sb):8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
bb checks, Stox bets, bb calls

Turn(3.25 bb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
bb checks, Stox bets, bb calls

River(5.25bb): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bb checks, Stox bets?

You need the passive player to fold 16% of his hands that you beat in order for this to be profitable. Can you think of 16% of his hands that he would fold? If this were the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it might be a profitable play. However, the flush and straight both missed. The passive player will call if he has any idea of how to play. Since this book is for tough games I would think that the passive player would at least have a clue.

[greatwhite]

How bad are we talking about how this player is?

[bboy_]

seems like a check vs a loose passive

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Alot of people disagree with Stox play here, as Ive seen this hand example atleast three times now on 2+2. I think Stox play is very defensible here.

[DpR]

ace is a good card

[greatwhite]

[ QUOTE ]
ace is a good card

[/ QUOTE ]
It is a good card, but remember that your opponent is now getting 6.25-1. You can have a wide variety of hands here and I think that even the weaker players in a tough game realize this.

[dangerfish]

Don't like this bet. If he folds good chance you were good anyway. Having said that both of the hands with stox were questionable river bets which I don't think are terrible mistakes given stox does not seem to splash around chips all that liberally (from what I've seen of him). So I don't really think these are as bad as people are saying given his image.

[Guy McSucker]

When I read this one I disagreed with it too, simply because we have a Q in our hand so we now beat just about everything that isn't paired up.

[Victor]

i think this bet is more profitable than the other hand. guy makes a good point that we beat all his missed straight draws still. so betting is only profitable if he folds a pair.

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
The big blind is a loose passive player and Stox is on the button with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Preflop:
Stox raises, bb calls

Flop(4.5 sb):8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
bb checks, Stox bets, bb calls

Turn(3.25 bb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
bb checks, Stox bets, bb calls

River(5.25bb): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bb checks, Stox bets?

You need the passive player to fold 16% of his hands that you beat in order for this to be profitable. Can you think of 16% of his hands that he would fold? If this were the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it might be a profitable play. However, the flush and straight both missed. The passive player will call if he has any idea of how to play. Since this book is for tough games I would think that the passive player would at least have a clue.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Stox only bets this river about 40% of the time it should be profitable. If the guy has a pair of sevens he'd have about 35.36% equity vs Stox's open raising range from the button. That's 2.21 bets of a 6.25 BB pot. But if Stox is only bluffing here 40% of the time, it reduces this to .884 big bets. Right?

To be clear, I don't mean that, from the opponent's point of view there is a 40% chance that he is bluffing. I mean from the hero's point of view, when he reaches the river without pairing on a board that contains an Ace and King, that he'll continue betting if it has gone check/call, check/call about 40% of the time or less. He'll check behind about 60% of those cases. This should create negative ev for small pairs to call.

Below shows the equity for 7d6d on the river against Stox's approximate range here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

362 games 0.005 secs 72,400 games/sec

Board: Kh Ac 8d 2d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.641% 64.36% 00.28% 233 1.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 35.359% 35.08% 00.28% 127 1.00 { 7d6d }


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376 games 0.005 secs 75,200 games/sec

Board: Kh Ac 8d 2d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.277% 71.28% 00.00% 268 0.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 28.723% 28.72% 00.00% 108 0.00 { 3d2c }


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376 games 0.005 secs 75,200 games/sec

Board: Kh Ac 8d 2d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.277% 71.28% 00.00% 268 0.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 28.723% 28.72% 00.00% 108 0.00 { 3d2c }


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362 games 0.016 secs 22,625 games/sec

Board: Kh Ac 8d 2d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.641% 64.36% 00.28% 233 1.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 35.359% 35.08% 00.28% 127 1.00 { 7d6d }


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So, in all, we bet this flop always when checked to. On the turn, since we have no showdown value we bet and fold to a raise. If our hand had showdown value we sometimes check to induce a river bluff. And after this river comes and the opponent checks again, I think we bluff about 40%.