($27) Calling AI with AKo with 13x BB

[taipan168]

CO's stats are 8/4 over 100 hands. I ran the ICM on this and assuming that the limper folds, I need to be 49% to win to make this a good call:
- If I fold I have 1240 chips worth 9.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 2780 chips worth 20% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I am out.

9.8%/20% = 49%.

Assuming opp's shoving range is 99+, AQ+ then I'm only 48.6% to win so should fold this. Folding seems so counterintuitive though, but I can't see opp shoving AJ which he needs to be to make this a good call.

Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t755)
MP2 (t3170)
CO (t1350)
Button (t1295)
Hero (t1290)
BB (t675)
UTG (t2600)
UTG+1 (t2365)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t100, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t1350</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ????

[TimberBee]

I don't know much about ICM and all, but I'm never folding this... I also think his range is a lot wider because of the limper, perhaps 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs

[taipan168]

I think you're right, he might shove over with AJ considering the stack sizes of the players to act after him. I can't see shoving KQ or AT in his shoes though.

[Finnisher]

You have 100 hands saying CO is a nit so you should know if he's a pushbot. If he is he's very likely shoving wide especially if the limper won't call. And AK is probably a call regardless.

[TimberBee]

wow, I didn't see those nitty stats... Then I think my range for him is too loose. I still call with AK though, but AQ is a fold. I probably call with JJ+, AK.

[Dr_Wonderful]

One of these days I'll figure out ICM and stop being lazy, until then, CALL!

[drzen]

Dude, AQo wouldn't be in his normal raising range. (AQo+, 99+ is 5%.) But in 100 hands, who's to say which four he raised? I'm willing to duck a pot with this guy though.

[taipan168]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, AQo wouldn't be in his normal raising range. (AQo+, 99+ is 5%.) But in 100 hands, who's to say which four he raised? I'm willing to duck a pot with this guy though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Meh, 99+, AQ+ was my guess of his range since I couldn't see him folding AQ in that spot. Agreed that 100 hands is a small sample size though, who knows, maybe his cards ran cold over those 100 hands.

[freeucm]

AK QQ KK AA and i think JJ and 1010s are folds

[BHokie1]

A lot of nits shove wider than AQ+, 99+ here, not a lot wider but that seems a too tight.

In this situation I'm always calling with AK, TT+, and AQ+,99+ against a lot of players, but I'd fold AQ,99 to this guy.