Hand History review for Set vs. Straight on flop

[junior k]

I save all hand's and go back to review the play I made and thought I would share with you guy's. It is basically how I review my HH and learn from my mistake's. I would appreciate any comment's especially having to do with implied odd's and how much to bet after I make my hand to compensate for the time's I miss my draw.

Also is there anything else that I am missing when I go back to review these HH's? All comment's and suggestion's welcome. Thank's

PokerStars Game #11118147766: Omaha Pot Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/07/24 - 21:16:51 (ET)
Table 'Beira II' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: wmariner ($11.35 in chips)
Seat 3: gofore ($23.55 in chips)
Seat 4: lil junior k ($50.55 in chips)
Seat 5: EZ EARLE ($51.30 in chips)
Seat 6: csipcsup ($56.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Bleathem ($5.55 in chips)
Seat 9: BigWheel01 ($77.25 in chips)
BigWheel01: posts small blind $0.25
wmariner: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lil junior k [2d Jh Js 9s]
gofore: folds
lil junior k: calls $0.50
EZ EARLE: calls $0.50
csipcsup: folds
Bleathem: folds
BigWheel01: calls $0.25
wmariner: checks
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Qc]
BigWheel01: bets $1.50
wmariner: folds
lil junior k: calls $1.50
EZ EARLE: folds
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Qc] [4h]
BigWheel01: bets $3.50
lil junior k: calls $3.50
*** RIVER *** [Jc Ks Qc 4h] [Qs]
BigWheel01: checks
lil junior k: bets $6
rHyL has returned
BigWheel01: calls $6
*** SHOW DOWN ***
lil junior k: shows [2d Jh Js 9s] (a full house, Jacks full of Queens)
BigWheel01: mucks hand
lil junior k collected $22.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $24 | Rake $1.15
Board [Jc Ks Qc 4h Qs]
Seat 1: wmariner (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: gofore folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: lil junior k showed [2d Jh Js 9s] and won ($22.85) with a full house, Jacks full of Queens
Seat 5: EZ EARLE folded on the Flop
Seat 6: csipcsup folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Bleathem (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: BigWheel01 (small blind) mucked [8s 9c Ac Ts]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2895813
pokenum -o 2d jh js 9s - 8s 9c ac ts -- jc ks qc
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ks Qc Jc
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 2d Jh 323 39.39 497 60.61 0 0.00 0.394
Ts 8s Ac 9c 497 60.61 323 39.39 0 0.00 0.606

When you have trip's and your drawing to a full house you are a 3-2 dog on the flop or a 40% chance of hitting your draw
There is $3.50 in the pot and you have to call $1.50. You are getting 2.33-1 or 30% on your draw.
Since you have a 40% chance of hitting your draw and you are getting 2.33-1 on your money (30%) this is a +EV call

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2895837
pokenum -o 2d jh js 9s - 8s 9c ac ts -- jc ks qc 4h
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Ks Qc Jc 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 2d Jh 10 25.00 30 75.00 0 0.00 0.250
Ts 8s Ac 9c 30 75.00 10 25.00 0 0.00 0.750

You are now a 3-1 dog on the turn or a 25% chance of hitting your draw.
On the turn there is $8.50 in the pot and you have to call $3.50. You are getting 2.43-1 or 29% on your draw.
Since you have a 25% chance of hitting your draw and are getting 2.43-1 on your money (29%) this is a -EV call.

The 4% difference makes this a fold situation on the turn except for your implied odd's. Going into the river the pot is $12 and your stack is $45.05 and your opponent's is $71.75. You have to bet X amount of dollar's on the river to make up for your -EV call on the turn. Over the long run you will lose 3 out of 4 time's. The turn is where your -EV call occured. If you play this hand four time's you will lose ($3.50 times 3) = $10.50 and win $3.50 for a difference of -$7.00.
If you make your hand on the river you have to bet at least $7.00 in this situation to break even over the long run. For Implied Odd's to work you have to bet more than $7.00 here. 3/4 of the pot would be $8.00 so that should have been the river bet. Obviously bet more than that if you think your opponent will call.

If your opponent put's you on the set, a pot size bet on the flop still give's you 2-1 odd's. A call here will never be a -EV play. The river is where the opponent could control the odd's a little better. Going into the turn there was $5.00 in the pot and your opponent bet $3.50 giving you 2.43-1 on your money (29%) You have a 25% chance of hitting your draw so your opponent needs to offer you worst than 3-1 on your money. He did this but did not take into consideration implied odd's. If your opponent had pot the turn you would have been getting 2-1 on a 3-1 draw.


What I learned from reviewing this HH is that I needed to bet more after I made my hand on the river to compensate for my -EV call on the turn.

[chucky]

This is really good self analysis. Your point about implied odds and ev+ is true. You must be able to get your opponent to call all river bets of at least 7 bucks in order to break even. The problem with analyzing your flop play as ev+ and your turn play as ev- is that you flop play is odds of fh on flop are predicated on you seeing the river.

[junior k]

Your right. In my % it reflects I am seeing the turn and river off those numbers. Dont know how I missed that

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with analyzing your flop play as ev+ and your turn play as ev- is that you flop play is odds of fh on flop are predicated on you seeing the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes you are 2-1 to make your hand if he checks the turn, at the time you played you have 7 outs from 44 unseen cards so you are about 5.5-1 to hit the turn card (note that when you played then hand you didnt know if your opponent had any blockers, if he had sidecards K, or even worse KQ you are not quite in as good shape!)

on the river you actually only need to win $4.90 to break even - you are roughly 3.4-1 to hit and you are getting 2-1 pot odds, so you need to win the remaining 1.4-1 on the river $3.50*1.4 = $4.90

its important to do this kind of analysis when you are first learning - i bet a set all out till the river the other day and when the flush card came he bet like $1 into a $40 pot! wtf!? this is why Omaha is an easier game to beat than NLHE imo, but you also have to bear in mind its alot hard to get paid with draws generally

[sc000t]

Too often I see opponents drawing for hands (non nut hands) and they end up checking it even if they hit. It never makes anysense to me, why they would draw to a hand that they weren't sure would be good if they hit it. They don't try to get value after the hit, to compensate for the -EV spot they were in while drawing. Its a huge leak in alot of beginners game.


lil Junior, you playing HU much anymore?

[iggymcfly]

Here's some better analysis. With bottom set on a straight board, you're either making a close to neutral EV call if you're drawing live against a straight or you're making a terribly -EV call if you're drawing dead against a higher set. The $1 or so of value you might squeeze out if your opponent makes a bad call after the board pairs is never worth the huge net loss you'll have on the occasions where you run into a higher set.

Conclusion: Don't play any set except top set on a straight board and even that can be folded against a good TAG who bets the pot with his straights, doesn't pot a weak set, and folds when the board pairs.

[junior k]

I agree with your statement and follow what you are saying. When he pot the turn leading out I knew he had the straight and would pay off a little something if I hit on the river. That is the only reason I went to the river. If someone like beck, HOTWOP, or csi pot's the turn I am going to fold because I know they also have the straight but am not going to get any action if the river pair's the board.

This might sound silly because it is possible obviously that they could flop the straight with a top set also but I take a lot of note's on opponents. I put him on exactly what he had. If he did have a redraw to a bigger boat then I would fold to his raise after I lead out.

Does anyone go any further than what I have here when you analyze your HH? FWIW I have never read any book's on PLO or studied any strategy. I am just basically going off of hold em stuff and trying to apply it the best I can.