Wynn 5-10: Set on 3-Flush Board

[TrueBritt]

Wynn 5-10
My image is tight
Villain is Kelly, a loose-aggressive regular/(pro?)
Effective stacks are 5k

I raise to 40 in middle position with TcTs
Villain reraises in late position to 80
All fold to me
I call

Flop: (175) QdTh5d
I bet 140 with middle set
Villain smooth-calls

Turn: (455) QdTh5d 3d
Flush card comes
I put his range at 80% KK+, 10% a set of queens, and 10% AK
I check
Villain bets 200
I call

River: blank
I check, planning to call a pot-sized bet
Villain checks

Do you think I should have bet out on the turn, despite the 3-flush? My thinking was that the 3-flush made my set marginal, and I like to keep the pot small in marginal situations, especially with such deep stacks. Is this too cautious?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is Kelly, a loose-aggressive regular/(pro?)

[/ QUOTE ]
lol, [censored] is a nit.

[berserk]

check raise flop big

[AAismyfriend]

This was pretty poorly played on all streets IMO. CR the flop, and definately do not check the turn here.

[TrueBritt]

Why cr the flop? I'm representing top pair. Most people will raise with an overpair, and I can get a lot of money in on the flop, when I am likely to be way ahead.

[Sensational1]

[ QUOTE ]
Why cr the flop? I'm representing top pair. Most people will raise with an overpair, and I can get a lot of money in on the flop, when I am likely to be way ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. I like leading into pre flop raisers who have over pairs with sets. Makes pots bigger=more $$$ for me.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Most people will raise with an overpair, and I can get a lot of money in on the flop, when I am likely to be way ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Effective stacks are 5k

[/ QUOTE ]
lol, good luck with that

I don't hate the lead (although I prefer a c/r), but villain would have to be terrible to get 500BBs in on this flop with an overpair. If he raises at all, which I don't expect him to, I doubt he calls a 3bet.

Bet the turn because he won't raise enough to price you out, even if he does have a flush, and there are lots of hands that he'll chase with.

Bet the river because wtf do you think he's gonna bluff with? Looks like he just wants to see showdown.

[TrueBritt]

If I bet the turn, and he makes a pot-sized raise, I'm going to hate my hand. And I can only call if I think he'll call a big bet on the river when I make my boat.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
he makes a pot-sized raise

[/ QUOTE ]
He won't.

[ajloeffl]

I think you need to fire all 3 streets here against his obvious KK/AA. You outlined his range and you are ahead of most of it so why not get some value here since it would still be hard to fold KK or AA to a half pot turn and river bets.

If instead you checkraised the flop, KK/AA could probably easily fold the turn by assuming you had checkraised a draw which just hit or had a monster. They may even fold the flop if you haven't been checkraising draws or air along with your great hands for balance. I think the checkraise is way overused with monsters and isn't balanced enough by most players. I instead use the opposite route and lead with draws, monsters, mediocre hands, and air. It keeps the pot smaller when out of position which is what you want in a lot of cases and it doesn't tip your hand as much.