Wrong to push here near bubble?

[Packerfan1]

Hi 2+2ers, first post in a long time, thanks for any replies.

Hand from last nights $5.50+R on Stars. 420 players left, 396 get paid. Blinds are 500/1000 ante 100. Pack in sb with T8880 (M=3.7) after posting blinds.

Dealt to Pack A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Folded to button (T32705) who raises to T3000.

Seemed like an easy re-steal push to me, what say you?

Thanks,
Pack

Results in white...

<font color="white"> Button had QQ. For those of us who wonder about DramaStars it'll come as no surprise the flop came Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the turn another 6 and IGHN. </font>

[steve1127]

Depends on how the button has been playing. If he's been raising a lot in LP, then ok. But if no read, then I don't push here, since he's right to call with any two, especially with his stack, and a large part of his range has you dominated.

[Mingdu]

well, you have no fold equity as the button is priced in with most holdings, although he is doing this with a wide range.

Depends on how I'm feeling but I likely give it another orbit to find a hand and let the bubble burst

[SonofDjugashvili]

With A3s and no or almost no FE, I'd prefer to be first in, and so I would fold in this situation.

[BarryLyndon]

It's an easy push because of button's stack and because it's near the bubble. Factoring in bubble abuse is enough for me to resteal here.

And then, there is your stack, which sucks. It's not so much a re-steal as it is gambling with Ad3d against a fairly wide range getting good odds for your money (8K for about 15K).

Ad3d is going to fare well given the button's range + there is plenty in the pot. You'd be surprised that some button's may fold here for ~5K more. Even if, I'm down. Go for it.

[Yoshi63]

I hardly see this as a resteal, because you'll get very few folds here I don't think. But it is a decent value bet since you're ahead of his range and are getting decent odds.

It's probably not hugely +$EV though because the value of making the money (usually like $30 in the 5r) is about equal to 6 buyins or 9000 chips. Since your hand will probably hold up 60% of the time, the 'bustout factor' costs you like ~3600 chips.

If you fold you have 7880, if you shove i think your cEV is about 11500, the difference is about 3600 chips. Assuming the bubble will burst within an orbit or so (I think it will), i'd say it's about a neutral shove.

[Sherman]

Didn't look at results yet, although I see 3 diamonds.

I stop n go here. But I also stop n go too much. :/

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't look at results yet, although I see 3 diamonds.

I stop n go here. But I also stop n go too much. :/

[/ QUOTE ]

Sexy, I never think of this.

Barry

[BagOfCoins]

I'd agree with folding because you are too easily dominated by a higher ace, or stop-n-going because that's the best way to beat the higher ace.

[hamnegger]

just for future reference a3s is 43% against top 25% of hands which is about his range here