#1
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Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
Villain is running at 28/18/1,5/31% (VPIP/PFR/TOTAL AF/WTSD%) over 207 hands. His flop AF is seemingly low, only 1,25.
Although his WTSD of 31% he has showed mostly legitimate hands. Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $1,816.00 BB: $1,724.90 UTG: $727.49 <u>MP: $2,451.25</u> <u>Hero (CO): $2,075.00</u> BTN: $1,697.55 Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $35.00</font>, Hero calls $35.00, 3 folds Flop: ($85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $60.00</font>, MP calls $60.00 <font color="red">He check/calls the flop, I figure his range could be AK,AQ,T9,98,22,44,55,66,88,99,TT and maybe a slowplaying JJ. I rule out 76s-ish hands since I have already seen three sevens. I think he would most likely bet 33 and any other hit w/ a J, or an overpair.</font> Turn: ($205) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $145.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $290.00</font>, Hero calls $145.00 <font color="red"> This is very weird to me, I dont put him on J8 when raising UTG, that firstly check/called the flop and then C/R minimum on the turn. I think T9, what else could he have? I just call since I dont think he will call me w/ much worse that played THAT passive on the flop.</font> River: ($785) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">MP bets all-in for $2,066.25</font> <font color="red"> I fill up and figure but still figure if I can call. I've greatly underrepped my hand I am suddenly afraid of J8. His UTG PFR raise doesnt have to mean a premium hand since I only have 207 hands on him. I now can put him on AJ as well, for a slow/weird played TPTK, but I still dont know what to do? As I stated earlier I think he would bet the flop w/ a jack. </font> |
#2
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
Based on your seating chart, he is in the hijack position and not UTG. He could have 33, JJ, J7. It is a dry enough flop to slow play. A single pair of jacks probably bets this flop though and 9T would bet it as well instead of check/calling. Somehow on the turn he represents a big hand by the mincheckraise and you call signaling you like your hand as well. I really doubt he mincheckraises the turn with just AJ. He could put you on a set or maybe top pair after you call the minraise. If he thinks you have top pair he may be pushing with 33 hoping for a call. Or he could have quad jacks or J7 and think you have 33 or 77. Without more of a read, this is pretty hard to play, but before the river hit I'd have to put him on a set of jacks. Don't discount him having quads just because it is unlikely. Usually an overbet on the river is the nuts no matter how unlikely.
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#3
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
wtf raise the turn please
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#4
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
I don't agree with the turn raise suggestion. After raising PF and check/call, checkraising, he most likely has a set of jacks. If you raise the turn you go broke to a set of jacks and most worse hands may fold. Play this hand to get more value from worse hands and attempt to lose less against a better one. You are deep enough to get away from this 2nd best hand I think. If you only had 100BB I'd call.
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#5
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
Villain's low aggression factor seems key here, even if it is only over 207 hands. I don't pretend to know what to do at 200bbs deep but this looks like quad Js or a turned set of 8s that filled up.
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#6
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
I think this is a fold, he has j8, quads or 88 most of the time IMO
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#7
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
It sucks but yeah, you're behind here a huge proportion of the time.
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#8
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
I think this is precisely 88. If I had the luxury to think it through then I would fold the river.
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#9
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
riv is a fold, but i just keep jamming turn.
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#10
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Re: Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10
88 seems most likly to me..
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