Teach me the EV math with this hand

[markbris]

Ok so I know how to do EV calcs when Im calling. You just figure they're range and your equity against it and then call if your odds are better than your equity i.e. if you are getting 3:1 on the call and you're equity is 40% then you should call.

What I dont know is how to calculate the EV of doing a move like this. Lets say these opponents are showing to be fairly tight but not over more than 30 hands or so.
Heres my equity against what I perceive their calling range to be
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.899% 24.55% 01.35% 22702117 1244842.50 { Ac9s }
Hand 1: 74.101% 72.76% 01.35% 67272614 1244842.50 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

I know this depends on how often they call, im just wondering what calculations you do here. There is also a 25 ante to add to the pot that this does not show.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP3 (t3910)
CO (t20645)
Hero (t3610)
SB (t6500)
BB (t21150)
UTG (t3245)
UTG+1 (t14515)
MP1 (t6760)
MP2 (t8585)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t300, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t300, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3585

[illini43]

Well, you have to first assess their limping range. Then you must figure out how much of that limping range will call your raise.

So, let's say they limp 20% of hands and will call an AI with 5% or so of that range.

So, 75% (15/20) they fold and you win the pot and 25% (5/20) they call.

Then, you have to calculate your hand against their calling range for the times they do call and do the EV calculations (net gain x % of the time you win) - (net loss x % of the time you lose).

Take the resulting number you get from the times you are called and multiply it by .25.

Then add in the net # you get from the times you win the limps (.75 x pot size).

This is general and the numbers were set to standard amounts for examples sake. I hope this is what you were looking for.

[Yoda82]

Just to add (although Illini kind of mentioned it) - the entire calling range described in OP may in fact not be part of his limping range at all, as he could very well be raising all of these hands preflop almost all of the time. The calling range would therefore need to be heavily discounted, as villain would not normally limp these hands leaving him with an actual calling range of almost nothing.

[Yoshi63]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to add (although Illini kind of mentioned it) - the entire calling range described in OP may in fact not be part of his limping range at all, as he could very well be raising all of these hands preflop almost all of the time. The calling range would therefore need to be heavily discounted, as villain would not normally limp these hands leaving him with an actual calling range of almost nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

...hence the whole theory behind raising heavily after limpers. Unless you suspect the limpers might be capable of mixing up their play by limping high PP or AK here, then you'll almost never be called by a tight player.

[gimmetheloot]

Can anybody tell me if the answer is +547.5 chips? I feel so dumb

[D. Bosola]

There's no reason to do any math here. You have very little fold equity, if any, and as you pointed out, if called you are likely way behind. Fold this hand and wait for a chance to be first in.

[Yoshi63]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no reason to do any math here. You have very little fold equity, if any, and as you pointed out, if called you are likely way behind. Fold this hand and wait for a chance to be first in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily see this as a bad shove at all. If he gets called (and her certainly has some decent FE here), you'll often be up against a smaller PP than your 9, or even just two big suited cards.

[MathZoRaGeAVIT]

Which is the right way to work it out? I thought you did:

Work out EV of no call - % he folds x pot
Work out EV of call but you win - % he calls x % you win x (pot + his stack)
Work out EV of call but you lose - % he calls x % you lose x your stack

Then work it out like that, I believe that gives a different answer to the way illini43 wrote, which is the correct way or can both be used? :-S!!

Slightly confused!!!!!

[mayesie]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no reason to do any math here. You have very little fold equity, if any, and as you pointed out, if called you are likely way behind. Fold this hand and wait for a chance to be first in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without any reads, folding seems timid. Consider the following:

- The action is a single limper, who's limping with a wide range of hands.

- You're down to about 11BB. If you're "first-in", this is a standard shove.

- If the limper folds (less likely, given his stack), you've increased your stack by almost 30 percent, making the pot worth going for. Nonetheless, I can think of some hands that villain would fold (suited connectors, 1-gappers, small suited Aces, etc).

- There are plenty of hands that UTG+1 may call with, in which you're doing fine against (88-22, KQ-KT, maybe even a lower Ace). Given your meager stack, you should be happy to flip w/ A9o.

Thus, this looks like a relatively easy shove, given the information available to us.

[D. Bosola]

Read again. There are two limpers with fairly big stacks.