200NL: AK makes trips against a reg

paperboyNC · #1 07-26-2007, 12:24 PM

Read/Stats
MP2 is a regular
Stats: 24/8/2.76

He hasn't been to showdown since I sat down 20 minutes ago (has folded when bet in to). He makes moves occasionally.

My Stats / Image
I'm playing 23/19/4.00 over my last few hundred hands (what he's likely to have in Pokertracker). I've been playing a fairly solid postflop game.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($200)
MP1 ($163.05)
MP2 ($208.50)
MP3 ($48.45)
CO ($196.85)
Button ($127.70)
SB ($90.90)
BB ($145.45)
UTG ($239.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, MP2 calls $8, 5 folds.

Flop: ($19) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP2 raises to $36, Hero calls $21.

Turn: ($91) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $38, Hero ?

Betting Patterns / Hands
The flop was filled with draws so he could have any number of draws:
- 87 / 43 (4.5-1 favorite
- 2 diamonds (5-1 favorite)

A6 and A5 are unlikely since he called $8 out of position. (4 outs)

Non draw likely hands:
- AJo/AQo (Way ahead)
- ATs-AQs (Way ahead)
- 66 (7 outs)
- 55 (7 outs)
- Random bluffs (Way ahead)

What do you guys think of the very small turn bet? Is it ever okay to call here or would you raise (and if so, how much?)

SnglMaltScotch · #2 07-26-2007, 01:05 PM

OK, let me think this through. The very interesting part of this is that you have the Kd and the Ad was on the flop. I have trouble putting him on a flush draw. He could be calling pf with small suited connectors and such, but I would discount a flush draw a bit.

So we have 3 choices.
Fold... I don't think so.
Raise: OK, what better hands fold?? Umm nothing that I can think of. OK, what worse hands call?? All the Ax combinations listed.
Call. I have trouble putting him on any type of draw that we should be charging with a raise. A call looks to him like a TT/JJ/QQ/KK type hand.

I think that I am leading towards a raise, but I generally don't like raising without a plan if re-raised. If we raise are we committed to calling the all-in. If I did my math right, we started with $200 and have $42 invested. If we raise the turn to say $100, that leaves us with $58 left. I don't think I can lay down to an all-in since it can easily be Ax.

Final conclusion. Raise Turn to $100 or so call an all-in.

Thoughts.
SMS

CazicT · #3 07-26-2007, 01:17 PM

Do you think he is a good player? If so, i'd probably just flat call and see what happens. The small bet doesn't seem consistent with a draw or trip aces, but it might be consistent with a boat.

If you don't think he is good, then raise it up because a donk will pay you off with alot of hands and you will only rarely be behind.

His stats seem like he might be good, but I don't think you can definitively say so by just the stats.

Renton · #4 07-26-2007, 01:35 PM

if you put him on having a lot of draws in his range, then donkbet the turn, because if he knows whats good for him he'll take a free card with those hands.

As played just raise to like 124

bottomset · #5 07-26-2007, 01:38 PM

this hand looks very familar

mce86 · #6 07-26-2007, 11:41 PM

Im inclined to raise here. Worst case, we have 7-8 outs for the nuts on the river! Best, AQ~!~~

Javanewt · #7 07-27-2007, 09:02 AM

This looks a lot like a boat. It could easily be somethinge else, but I'm calling here. (God, I'm so weak lately!)

badbeatLOL · #8 07-27-2007, 10:13 AM

i play limit but lurk around here because i try to learn NL lately so please don't hate me when my question is dumb [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
what is so tricky about this hand? if we are afraid of stacking of behind here, whats the point in the flopcall then? or is the real question how to extract value from draws without pushing them off their hand? or are we concerned that villain could fold a worse ace to a good sized raise here?
and another general question, it seems as if there are always 3 different opinions on how to play a hand and all seem legit, is that standard in NL that it his hard to figure an optimal way to play a hand?

Javanewt · #9 07-27-2007, 10:20 AM

Yes, standard that their are different opinions on how to play a hand. There are so many variables and so many different styles of play.

CazicT · #10 07-27-2007, 10:37 AM

We call the flop because MP2 could have raised with a decent amount of hands that we are still beating so we don't want to fold. But if we raise, he will probably fold any hand we beat, except for maybe a draw if we don't raise enough.

A 3rd raise in NL is a very big show of strength, so we won't get action unless we are beat.

So basically, yeah we are trying to extract more from weaker aces and lose less from sets basically.

NL opinions vary because alot of what you consider is implied odds which varies from opponent to opponent. So a play that may be profitable against one opponent, won't be against another. The same is probably true of limit, but the variance is probably much smaller.