Downswing question-- starting to think I suck, lol

cb4mvp · #1 07-26-2007, 01:13 AM

Have any winners at 25NL had 10-15 BI downswings over a 15k hand sample? In the middle (hopefully end?) of one right now and I'm starting to think it's more than just running bad, maybe I ran hot to get where I am. I go through this every time I have a downswing (familiar with ~10 BI swings at 10NL) so I'm familiar with this feeling, but I just have this impression that good winning players shouldn't have stretches likee this at 25NL. Tell me I'm not alone, lol.

Xanta · #2 07-26-2007, 01:21 AM

15 buyin downers do happen, even at microlimits. Two things have been true of every substantial downswing I've seen at uNL.

1. You are running bad
2. You could be playing better.

You can only control one of those, the other will work itself out. Post hands, talk to people, keep improving your game and keep your head up. It'll work out over time.

Good Luck.

DaycareInferno · #3 07-26-2007, 01:21 AM

its possible to have bad runs that long, but the overwhelming majority of times that happens to someone, they have some holes in their game. odds are that its a combination of you running bad and not playing as well as you could.

SkeetyMcdoogle · #4 07-26-2007, 01:23 AM

Im a 6ptbb/100 winner at NL25 and I just dropped like 8 buyins, pretty sure I didnt even do anything dumb either

Knuckles · #5 07-26-2007, 01:26 AM

Having suffered through a couple of down swings I always say half of the down swing is my play. The other half of the down swing is the cards. I would start by taking a week off. Then I would do go back through my hands and find the top 20 losing hands and try and determine what went wrong.

Worm75 · #6 07-26-2007, 01:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Have any winners at 25NL had 10-15 BI downswings over a 15k hand sample? In the middle (hopefully end?) of one right now and I'm starting to think it's more than just running bad, maybe I ran hot to get where I am. I go through this every time I have a downswing (familiar with ~10 BI swings at 10NL) so I'm familiar with this feeling, but I just have this impression that good winning players shouldn't have stretches likee this at 25NL. Tell me I'm not alone, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cut back on the tables you play, evaluate your play after every session in PT, and see if you can get someone to sweat a couple of your sessions whose poker opinion you respect. Downswings are part of the game, and variance can be a bitch, but generally it is only 1/2 the story.

If your interested, post a copy of a screen shot of your general stats, and position stats and I will take a look at it.

Akakapman · #7 07-26-2007, 01:53 AM

most buyins ive ever dropped was about 8

sluggger5x · #8 07-26-2007, 02:14 AM

I have been a 4+ PTBB winner at NL50 for 100k+ hands and recently have dropped about 15 buyings. I have tilted probably 3 or 4 of those, but yeah these things can happen. It sucks. Take a day or two off and don't even thing about poker if you feel mentally defeated.

KEW · #9 07-26-2007, 02:23 AM

No insult intended...

Were you ever a proven winner at $25NL??? Often we over estimate our own skill and then when we lose blame variance for our downswing/losing...

15 buy in downswings can and do happen to winning players..

You need to evaluate your game to determine what the cause of the downswing is...How many tables do you normally play???? If greater then 4 I would recommend you cut it down to no more then 4 until you recover..

Post your stats in this thread..

Post a few hands..These general thread question really do next to nothing to solving the problem..We are here t help post your hands you likely have several POST FLOP leaks...

Frosteater · #10 07-26-2007, 04:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Have any winners at 25NL had 10-15 BI downswings over a 15k hand sample? In the middle (hopefully end?) of one right now and I'm starting to think it's more than just running bad, maybe I ran hot to get where I am. I go through this every time I have a downswing (familiar with ~10 BI swings at 10NL) so I'm familiar with this feeling, but I just have this impression that good winning players shouldn't have stretches likee this at 25NL. Tell me I'm not alone, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it helps, you're not alone.
If that makes you feel more comfortable, I'm winning at 25NL (although over a sample size too small to really make that statement) and am down 29 buy-ins at 10NL over ~60k hands. In the beginning I thought I was running bad, too, but as you can see, if I had double-checked that, I might have been able to move up sooner. Not that I care about it that much now ...

Maybe you should look at it this way:
If you loose, a good part of it is because you don't play as good as you could. Which I'm stating as a fact now, after all, we're all posting here to learn and get better, right? On the other hand you'll definitely see your share of bad beats, you know it and there's nothing you can do about it.
If you're running bad, it's most likely a mix of the two factors, but as has been stated before, there's nothing you can do about the cards, you can just try to fix the leaks in your game - which you should always aim for, doesn't matter if you run good or bad.

As for the bad feelings that accompany those swings (and I guess this is why you write this, isn't it?), I guess there are multiple ways to deal with it and you just have to find out which one works best for you. Maybe crushing play money tables is the way for you to get your head back on your shoulders again (as in no money to care about involved)?

You should think about that, too. Everyone has bad stretches and you know that. For about five months I didn't really do anything but donating to 10NL (which I still can't beat for whatever reason), so I absolutely know where you're coming from. You just have to work out a way to not let that get to you too much. Once feelings of doubt get a hold of you and you're not comfortable at your stakes anymore, your play will inevitably suffer. Don't let that happen.