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#1
07-24-2007, 02:16 AM
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Odds question about a televised match
I'm trying to figure out how the probabilities work with a specific hand. The hand was between Tony G. and Men.
Tony G. had KdTd, Men had Ac9d. Flop was Tc5cKc. The televised graphic had Tony G. as a 64/36 favorite. I know this is correct (PokerStove gives 64.44% with no ties), but what I'm wondering is, how does that work out? Men has 9 outs for the flush, so his odds of a flush should be 1-36/45*35/44=36.36%. But Tony G. still wins if he gets his 4 outs to a full house. Since Tony's outs are not clubs, there should be some combinatorial way to adjust Men's odds down. How does one calculate the impact of that? (in terms of arithmetic, rather than simulation) 
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#2
07-24-2007, 02:29 AM
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Re: Odds question about a televised match
It's just pretty straightforward. You can calculate all the turns and rivers which have no kings, tens, clubs, or runner runner for better two pair/trips for Men. Take that number and add it to all the turns and rivers which have a king and or ten. That combined number is the number of boards in which Tony G wins (unless I'm forgetting something). Divide that number by the total number of turn/river combinations (which should be 45*44 if no other cards are known). That's Tony G's winning percentage. 100% - that percentage is Men's winning percentage.
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#3
07-24-2007, 03:44 AM
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Re: Odds question about a televised match
Not answering your question about how to do the math, but a couple of comments.
On TV they often (always?) account for the dead cards when calculating the odds. We saw people fold Qs 4d Jc 7d Qd 3s, so there are only 8 clubs left for the flush. If the dead cards are taken into account, Men's equity is 35.897%. Men can also hit runner runner trip As or 9s, or runner runner Aces up to win. If he hits an A on the turn, his equity increases to 39.474% I'm sure you would get a better answer here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...rd=probability
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#4
07-27-2007, 07:25 AM
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Re: Odds question about a televised match
[ QUOTE ]
On TV they often (always?) account for the dead cards when calculating the odds. We saw people fold Qs 4d Jc 7d Qd 3s, so there are only 8 clubs left for the flush. If the dead cards are taken into account, Men's equity is 35.897%. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting to observe how little difference the dead cards make, because though a club is gone, so are 5 non-clubs. [ QUOTE ] I'm sure you would get a better answer here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...rd=probability [/ QUOTE ] Thanks, I'll post about it over there.
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