Protecting weak hand in a large pot

RemyXO · #1 07-23-2007, 07:27 PM

Here is an interesting hand that just came up, would like to hear your thawtz.
UTG+1 is stacking off like a good donkey.
No read on BTN after one orbit.

Full Tilt 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero caps, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Preflop cap is obv, UTG+1 is stacking off and his 3-bet is meh. Button cold-calling 4 is troublesome though

Flop: (15.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG+1 3-bets $0.8 (All-In), Hero calls, Button calls.

Good news is that UTG folded. UTG+1 is betting this regarless of the holding, but I want to raise here to drive out BTN just in case he is holding Ax or small pair. He cold-calls two, so I think he's on medium/small pair or unimproved AX.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, Button checks.

The turn is the debatable part, IMHO. I chose to check since I am still unimproved but have outs, I don't have much folding equity against the BTN who may have me beat already. I am calling his bet and c/f river UI. When he checked, I was more confident most probable holding is Ace+Big

River: (11.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets ...

[b] No help on the river, but I'd like to make another AK fold and avoid a chop. I don't fear a raise much, since he's been passive and the card is unlikely to help him. [b]

Xhad · #2 07-23-2007, 07:31 PM

He is not folding AK on the river after you call and check the turn; if you bet it's because you're b/fing for value. Everything pre-river is good.

NIX · #3 07-23-2007, 07:38 PM

I don't like the river bet. If he's loose/bad and made it that far with some sort of pair, he's calling. The only benefits of the bet that I see are to get called by AT-AQ (maybe) or to fold AK (again, maybe). Since he failed to bet the turn, I wouldn't expect a river bet from him, so I'd check and take the likely free showdown in case he is in love with his 55 or 76s.

Buzz-cp · #4 07-23-2007, 08:06 PM

Putting button on AK through the whole hand is a mistake. After he calls 4 cold and then calls the flop he PPs are part of his range. He is confused by your turn check so his goal is probably to showdown cheaply. I think the river bet is wasted.

RemyXO · #5 07-23-2007, 09:15 PM

Hmmm ... to the river we go. One disclaimer is that my feeling on the BTN was that he's not a complete ZOMG donkey. He played, like, one hand in an orbit. So, cold-calling with 76s is not really in range.

Buzz, I dind't put him on AK throughout, it's just in the range. When the river came, his range IMHO was pairs 99+ and AT, AJ, AQ, AK. Although I was slightlu discounting QQ-KK-AA due to his passiveness. You'd think he'd stick a raise somewhere with strong overpair.

So, if he has a pair or better, I might get a free showdown, but he'd probably bet it himself, seeing that I checked 2 streets. I'd have to call. He'd only raise my bet with a pretty strong hand. If he has a pair, bet-folding seemed a better option.

If he doesn't have a pair and is sitting with AX, value betting is obviously +EV. He might call a with weaker ace (+1BB), or he might fold (he'd check behind with AX anyway). Hero is not gaining anything by checking, but gaining some if he's betting. If it gets the villain to fold AK, it's +6BB immediately.

Thawtz?

marchron · #6 07-23-2007, 10:58 PM

Big problem that nobody's seeing: the all-in guy. You're betting nothing into a dry side pot, and while I'm not advocating an unspoken check-it-down conspiracy because that'd be stupid in a cash game, you still must realize that you have two opponents to beat here in order to win any money at all.

Your AK may be good against Button, but what are the odds that it will also beat the all-in guy? Even though he's stacking off, any piece of the board beats you, and any pocket pair beats you. Check, hope to God Villain checks, and then see whether or not AK UI is still good. If Villain bets, fold. Your odds of winning suck.

CrMenace · #7 07-23-2007, 11:17 PM

Isn't the rule of thumb that you have to be ahead 55% of the time to bet the river? If you think you're good that often or the villain will fold a winner 1 time in 11, go ahead. Me, I don't see it. Button weathered a nasty storm on the early streets to show down Ax UI.

Plus the thing that March said.

RemyXO · #8 07-23-2007, 11:24 PM

I can't do much about the all in fellow. I don't hate my odds of winning against him, because he's sitting there with ATC. That's probably why his presence was glossed over in the posts.

However, the presence of AI villain and dry side pot make check/call the better option, IMHO. I don't think I am folding this in 13-bet pot on the river.

EDIT: I actually thought flop and turn decisions would be more interesting to discuss.

JJack · #9 07-24-2007, 07:15 AM

*grunch*
for me flop is like from SSH book [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] u need protect u overcards from weak made hands like medium pocet pairs and less probably Ax (PF cold call)
At turn we know that BTN probably have made hand or less probably AT+ so i would use 3rd flush turn card like scare card and make semi-bluff bet to improve my chance vs small/medium pocets
(if u even behind vs all-in's player the pot is big and u risk 1bb to improve more u chance to win - if i good understand one concept at SSH [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )
If he call turn i play c/f river UI

Oink · #10 07-24-2007, 07:43 AM

grunching for once

Flop raise is terrible and spew. How many villains in your games will call 4 bets cold preflop and then have a hand that will fold for 2 bets on that flop?

Turn good

River: Trying to fold AK has little value since the side pot is empty and you are not a favorite against UTG's range. I would check and fold if I knew button was sane since he shouldnt try and bluff the empty pot. Since we dont know jack about button I would check and make a crying call.