Folding a Boat on the River?

[Cat]

Villain has TAG stats (22/15/2.5) but I don't think he's a very good player. On the turn I put him on two pair as I think with the flush draws he gets it AI right there with a straight. In which case... Tho I guess it's possible he has something like KT or T9.

Can you fold this river?


Hold'em NL ($2/$5)

Seat 1: UTG ($247.30 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG+1($445.50 in chips)
Seat 3: MP1 ($410 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero (Button)($1618.76 in chips)
Seat 5: Villain (SB)($635.37 in chips)
Seat 6: BB ($354.27 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind $2
BB: posts big blind $5

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
UTG: folds
UTG+1: folds
MP1: folds
Hero: raises to $20
Villain: calls $18
BB: calls $15

----- FLOP ----- [T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

Villain: checks
BB: checks
Hero: checks

----- TURN ----- [T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]][7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

Villain: bets $50
BB: folds
Hero: raises to $120
Villain: calls $70

----- RIVER ----- [T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]][T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]

Villain: checks
Hero: bets $165
Villain: raises to $495.37 and is all-in

Hero?

[ebarnet]

nope, looks too much like AK to fold here

[Cat]

I think he reraises me PF with AK every time.

[ebarnet]

still looks too fishy to fold. Only JT and QT beat you if he's repopping AK, because he's prob repopping TT, JJ, QQ too.

[ebarnet]

also, you should be raising to about 155 on the turn if ur going to raise, this board is way to drawy for a nearly min-raise

[Cat]

Agree I should have raised more on the turn, dunno why I didn't [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] The thing is HE can certainly be afraid that I have AK (not that I would ever play it this way, but he might think I would).

[lapoker17]

yeah - this is a fine fold unless he's retarded or super good.

[aislephive]

Meh your line looks so FOS I couldn't fold here. Not thrilled about the spot at all but we're getting really sick odds, almost 3-1 here with a boat and you've represented no hand with your line.