AQs in BB - Easy laydown or Easy Call (Bubble Decision)

[Popped Rod]

Final two tables of local MTT (12 players) left, payout starts at 9.

My table is 6 handed and has been playing relatively tight as we approached bubble.

Relavent Stacks/Reads:

UTG - t27k - Fairly straight forward ABC player, has FT many times at this cardroom.

Button t22k - Has been aggressive when involved in a pot but has not shown down anything fishy.

BB (Hero) t20k - I came to the table shortstaked but have stolen enough blinds to build up to Avg Stack.

There are also two shortstacks at the other table who are close to being blinded out.

Blinds are 1500/3000, no antes.

Dealt to Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG calls t3000, 2 folds, Button raises t24k all-in, SB mucks, Hero...???

[ItalianFX]

This can be AK alot of times and other times it could be 66-JJ. I'm probably folding here as it's not worth it to me to race. All we are beating are cards that are worse than ours, but I don't think I want to find out as it would be for my entire tourney. Yeah, we are below 10bb and need to take a stand somewhere, but I just don't see us being ahead here often enough to make it worth it.

That's just my opinion.

[cheburashka]

I'm a newbie, so take this with a big handful of salt...

First, with an M of 5.5, I can't imagine a hand I'd like to limp in with from UTG; I'm pretty much shoving or staying out. So I'm a bit confused about what's going on here. But if UTG hasn't adjusted his game and is still limping in with things like Axs, 98s, 22-66, then I would interpret button's shove as most likely a decent made hand like 88+, but also somewhat likely AQ-AK looking for fold equity (but not really minding a showdown against UTG's likely range).

So the calculation is the 1.4 to 1 pot odds vs. your equity against button's range. Pokerstove says you have 40% vs. 88+, which is 1.5 to 1, but if you add in ~10% likelihood of a bluff plus something else that you might beating (maybe AJs, maybe KQs), I think a call is probably +EV.

I don't know if Adam would give this a fist-pump, but I would call.

[8Adam8]

so.. someone limps... someone shoves 8bb's.. and you have AQs?

Beat him into the pot

AND DEF FISTPUMP [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
so.. someone limps... someone shoves 8bb's.. and you have AQs?

Beat him into the pot

AND DEF FISTPUMP [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah seriously. You have less than 10BBs, are 6 handed and you have AQ. What more can you ask for? How about action in front of you? Ok fine, you can have that too. Now what else?

The only way I could fold here is if my read on the pusher was sooo good. I would have to know that he would never push over limps w/out QQ+,AQ+. Otherwise, I'd be calling here. He should be shoving pretty wide.

Edit: Because I just saw Barry's post. My feel is that UTG is almost never calling here. I'd say like maybe 20% of the time he is calling. Given the reads, he seems like the weak/tight type who limp/folds too much.

[BarryLyndon]

Fairly straight forward ABC players are apt to try to make final tables, but limp with KQ or 99 in this spot in hopes to see a cheap pot and win it if there is little resistence. He has 27000, so his thought process could be "a limp won't hurt me here, I'll have 24000 after if I miss, but a lot of times I can get 3000 in the pot and steal." I'd put him on AJo or something more often than not.

Yes, I'm more worried about the limp UTG than the button's raise. You should be concentrating on UTG here, button's push is great for me given the size of the pot, his style, and my hand.

Reads are important here.

I get it in there. You know, if button is laggro and things UTG is weak, there is nothing knocking out pushes with AJ, A10s, and KQ here, as well as small pairs, which I'm glad to get it in with. I'm trying to win this, not just make the final table. Making the final table with these blinds without more chips is just asking for trouble.

And if UTG decides to making a crying call with 99, and button fips over 1010, are you really that upset?

Barry

[registrar]

It's a shove because of the probably dead money in the pot but ranges are much tighter on a live bubble than online - people don't think about the BBs in their stack, they just think they have enough to get onto the FT if they 'don't do anything stupid'. So call, but don't fistpump until you outflop what's almost always going to be a better hand.

[PantsOnFire]

In my opinion, it is neither an easy laydown nor an easy call.

Had button been a shortstack, I would definitely shove to isolate.

The hard part about this is ranging these two players. I only really want to see AJ or less. At this stage of the game, I really don't want to call a race. I would rather shove and add some fold equity to race situations than to call.

This would be a very tough fold for me.

[chh]

17k for 24.5k giving you 1.5 odds

you say he's fairly aggressive, but I'll still give him a (for those circumstances) rather tight range here

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.508% 51.30% 06.21% 252974952 30622002.00 { 66+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.492% 36.28% 06.21% 178924596 30622002.00 { AQs }

even that range makes it a trivial call.. and we might well be shoving stuff like ats or KQ here as well.
If you want to win, call

[BarryLyndon]

Definitely fist pump; very important for meta-game purposes.

Barry