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  #1  
Old 07-19-2007, 01:08 PM
Quebecker Quebecker is offline
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Default Probability to a Full House

Hello,

whats the probability of getting a full house when you already have a set....

Probability on the flop ?
Probability on the river ?

thx !
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  #2  
Old 07-19-2007, 01:15 PM
CmnDwnWrkn CmnDwnWrkn is offline
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Default Re: Probability to a Full House

Turn - 5.71:1

River - 5.57:1

Turn OR river - 2:59:1
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  #3  
Old 07-19-2007, 01:19 PM
Sweir Sweir is offline
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Default Re: Probability to a Full House

[ QUOTE ]


River - 5.57:1


[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn you actually have 10 outs to fill up / hit quads so it is 3.6:1 .
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  #4  
Old 07-19-2007, 01:33 PM
Quebecker Quebecker is offline
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Default Re: Probability to a Full House

In that particular hand, I should push all-in on the turn ??

============================

***** Hand History for Game 6165061781 *****
$25 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, July 19, 12:53:08 ET 2007
Table Table 126493 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: svante1438 ( $35.45 USD )
Seat 2: Laudrup_10 ( $19.65 USD )
Seat 3: Arminia72 ( $25.76 USD )
Seat 4: wiewaldi ( $32.22 USD )
Seat 6: lobbsi ( $7.90 USD )
Seat 5: Johnny_no7 ( $25 USD )
wiewaldi posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Johnny_no7 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Johnny_no7 [ 6h Ah ]
lobbsi folds
Laudrup_10 folds
Arminia72 raises [$0.50 USD]
wiewaldi calls [$0.40 USD]
Johnny_no7 calls [$0.25 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 4h, Th ]
wiewaldi checks
Laudrup_10: luckbox :-)
Johnny_no7 bets [$1.50 USD]
Arminia72 calls [$1.50 USD]
>You have options at Table 127743 Table!.
wiewaldi folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
Johnny_no7 bets [$3 USD]
Arminia72 raises [$6 USD]
Johnny_no7 raises [$6 USD]
Arminia72 calls [$3 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 4s ]
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  #5  
Old 07-19-2007, 01:38 PM
CmnDwnWrkn CmnDwnWrkn is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 686
Default Re: Probability to a Full House

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


River - 5.57:1


[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn you actually have 10 outs to fill up / hit quads so it is 3.6:1 .

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not ten outs. it would be 6 outs for the full house (3 for the first unpaired card and three for the second) and 1 out for the quads (1 out to add to your set) Total of seven outs
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  #6  
Old 07-19-2007, 03:13 PM
Jouster777 Jouster777 is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: LAG right, nit left
Posts: 1,825
Default Re: Probability to a Full House

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


River - 5.57:1


[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn you actually have 10 outs to fill up / hit quads so it is 3.6:1 .

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not ten outs. it would be 6 outs for the full house (3 for the first unpaired card and three for the second) and 1 out for the quads (1 out to add to your set) Total of seven outs

[/ QUOTE ]
Sweir is correct. You described the situation on the flop where there are 2 unmatched cards. On the turn there are 3 unmatched cards (assuming you whiffed) so 9 outs to a boat and 1 to a quad for ten outs total.

7 outs after flop=> 1:5.7 odds => 14.9%
10 outs after turn=> 1:3.6 odds => 21.7%

Cumulatively this works out to about 33% including both streets
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  #7  
Old 07-19-2007, 04:39 PM
Quebecker Quebecker is offline
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Default Re: Probability to a Full House

Thx Jouster
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  #8  
Old 07-20-2007, 06:46 AM
Sweir Sweir is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 634
Default Re: Probability to a Full House

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


River - 5.57:1


[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn you actually have 10 outs to fill up / hit quads so it is 3.6:1 .

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not ten outs. it would be 6 outs for the full house (3 for the first unpaired card and three for the second) and 1 out for the quads (1 out to add to your set) Total of seven outs

[/ QUOTE ]
Sweir is correct. You described the situation on the flop where there are 2 unmatched cards. On the turn there are 3 unmatched cards (assuming you whiffed) so 9 outs to a boat and 1 to a quad for ten outs total.

7 outs after flop=> 1:5.7 odds => 14.9%
10 outs after turn=> 1:3.6 odds => 21.7%

Cumulatively this works out to about 33% including both streets

[/ QUOTE ]

Thankyou.
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