25NL - KK OOP against L-A

Arcturus · #1 07-18-2007, 08:42 PM

Button is 40/15 with AF of 2.8. For 30 hands previous to this hand, he played a lot of hands against the BB player back and forth, FWIW.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($25)
Button ($39.65)
SB ($30.50)
BB ($40.25)
Hero ($26.60)
MP ($8.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Button calls $1.25, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3.

Turn: ($8.85) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $6, Button calls $6.

River: ($20.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...?

I'm terrible in this scenario. I know I have top pair going into the river against L-A. But when someone keeps calling big bets from the button, I really worry about his holdings. What is the proper play here? Push? Check and see?

joxstrap · #2 07-18-2007, 09:56 PM

I think given your opponent in this situation I'd just lead out for $12 dollars or so and fold to a reraise.

A few things:

1) I wouldn't bet so much on the flop, despite the high likelihood of a draw (diamonds/OESD) you are doing enough by making him call incorrectly by betting 2/3 or 3/4 of the pot .
2) The turn only only completes an unlikely straight draw - 69 (is he loose enough to call with 69 on the button)? It also completes a gutshot which may or may not be able to be discounted.

3) No draws really got there in the end, and it's probably unlikely he's calling you to the river with a 7.

I think it's a balancing act of these factors which really are dependent on how loose this villan is. I think by betting less into the flop you're also making each subsequent street easier to play.

I can easily see him calling you down with 9Ts,9T etc, and folding tons of missed draws which he might have been bad enough to draw to.

---

I just realized that you're only going to have 3 or so dollars behind if you fold to a push, which doesn't make sense, I'd probably push this river. Another risky strategy would be to CRAI on the flop if you are sure that he'll bet to your check, but given all the draws out there you are taking the risk he takes the free card.

I'm not sure any of that was very helpful sorry - it's a difficult spot with him just calling you down. I think he could pretty easily have 99 here as well as JJ or QQ.

Argh! Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

wulfpacker21 · #3 07-18-2007, 10:44 PM

bet out 12-18 i think hes prob. on two suited cards

Capone · #4 07-18-2007, 10:45 PM

Yeah make it $15 vb.

filsteal · #5 07-18-2007, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bet out 12-18 i think hes prob. on two suited cards

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is the case, then shouldn't we be checking?

(I don't think this is the case all that often, though. Sometimes.)

Thuey11 · #6 07-18-2007, 10:49 PM

u guys who say make it 12-18 bet etc, do u realize he only has 16 behind? Obv Shove here. Oh and LOL at the guy who says bet 12 and fold to a reraise! LMFAO, that is the worst advice i have heard for a while.

Capone · #7 07-18-2007, 10:50 PM

lol

justhetip · #8 07-18-2007, 10:58 PM

Either make a value bet, or check and induce a bet from this guy as he is aggressive. I think you should balance your play between these two options, and you shouldn't really fold this river after putting in so much and you probably have the best hand.

Arcturus · #9 07-18-2007, 11:01 PM

I believe pushing here is the best play. But, I wasn't sure.

What I am curious about is if I do check on the river and Villian goes all-in, how much credit should I give him on having a decent hand?

filsteal · #10 07-18-2007, 11:03 PM

What happens more often: (A) We bet here, and fold out a missed draw that was going to bluff, or (B) we check-call here, and miss value from a weaker made hand that would've called a shove?

The size of your flop and turn bets means villain's less likely than usual to have a busted draw here. So I think (B) happens more often here than (A).

So I shove.