43 hits the wheel

[jerryf1914]

villian is 82/44/5

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $10.45
BB: $6.40
UTG: $11.40
MP: $11.05
Hero (CO): $7.95
BTN: $8.20

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, Hero calls $0.10, <font color="red">BTN raises to $0.50</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.65) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.65) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.80</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2.30</font>, BB folds, Hero???

[kazana]

Call this and call a reasonable bet on the river.
With such an aggressive player I'm not primarily worried about a flopped flush, but it certainly is a possibility.

The problem is, if you reraise here, and you're getting more action, you will have to fold. Raising for information very rarely is a good idea.

[Fiksdal]

call down

btw preflop is bad

Fold is fine, raise is fine. Limping is bad.

[CobraGoat]

I gotta say.. against this dope, this is an easy RR for me and hope to get it all in. Villains range is big. I think the EV is greatest getting as much money in on turn vs. a river which could bring a number of scare cards for hero and villain and kill action.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
call down

btw preflop is bad

Fold is fine, raise is fine. Limping is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is pf bad? i hit a huge hand as cheaply as possible against a terrible player.

and why would i want to call down what if he has the ace of spades?

[kazana]

[ QUOTE ]
I gotta say.. against this dope, this is an easy RR for me and hope to get it all in. Villains range is big. I think the EV is greatest getting as much money in on turn vs. a river which could bring a number of scare cards for hero and villain and kill action.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. My problem is, that even though his stats are superficially bad, it doesn't mean that he'll take crappy hand to the felt.
If he wants to play for all chips here, you're either drawing dead, or not very far ahead.
On the other hand, with that much aggression, he will bluff any scare card on the river. That's what we're trying to snap off.
By RR here, we're not quite turning our hand (with considerable showdown value) into a bluff, but were close to doing so.

[jerryf1914]

[ QUOTE ]
If he wants to play for all chips here, you're either drawing dead, or not very far ahead.


[/ QUOTE ]

i understand the drawing dead part but not the "not far ahead" part. we're a 4 to 1 favorite against everything else pretty much

[CobraGoat]

The only hand we are behind is the flopped flush. We are crushing all other hands, thats including sets and pair NFDs as well. We're like 71% favorite over all of those hands, annnnnnd, all those hands are calling a raise on this turn, but the pair whiffed FDs are probably folding on river, sets probably still call but i think we are losing value.

If villain has the flush and we just call and then he pots the river, do we fold? probably not. since we are losing our stack regardless to the flush, it makes the msot sense to me to get the money in when were are best and when we are likely going to get called by the widest range of worse hands.

[Miyogi]

Buy in for a full stack and I usually dump this preflop as it starts to get harder to hit OESD with 43 as compared to 65 or higher. On this turn I think push is best. You really don't want a 4th spade to hit and this villian will call you with his AJ along with anything better.

[kazana]

I see 12 set combos, and up to 45 flush combos.
If our push gets called by all of them, we'd be 70% to win 21% of the time and 0% to win the rest of the time. Ecpectation: less than 15%

We can safely assume that many of the flush combos aren't in villains range, but with him raising 44% there will still be a majority of them. Let's say 24.

This makes us win 70% 33% or the time, for an overall expectation of getting 23% of the money back if we're getting called.

Sure, if villain will call with lots of two pairs, and most of his paired fdraws, etc, then pushing may well be a superior option.

But I don't think villain will do that. The extra money we're putting in won't win us anything extra vs most of his worse hands, where a flat call will give him plenty of opportunities to bluff on the river.

Dunno, it's too late for me to crunch numbers and add other options, but it basically comes down to how many worse hands he'll call a push with. And I can't give accurate assessments without having been at the table.

Edit: WTF, it's getting late. There are only 12 set vombos out there. Corrected that.