200NL, Semi bluff going bad

JacksAgain · #1 07-17-2007, 04:24 PM

Villain seems typical tag. His reraise is obv showing strength. From my limited history w/villain, I don't think he would RR with big combo draw or nut flush draw. So, I'm convinced he has set, maybe AA. Am I getting the right price to call? I don't think this is a good spot at all for push. Your thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($221.45)
Hero ($197)
UTG+1 ($257.90)
MP1 ($273.55)
MP2 ($277.30)
CO ($381)
Button ($152.45)
SB ($163.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, MP1 calls $8, 5 folds.

Flop: ($19) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP1 calls $12.

Turn: ($43) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $31, MP1 raises to $78, Hero ?

Mingdu · #2 07-17-2007, 04:30 PM

$47 to see $152 or about 3/1 when your odds of hitting the second nut flush is less than 20% ... add the J's available and you are only up to less than 26% or so.

If you have him on a made hand do you think a shove gets him off the hand? That is read dependant

Why did you bet the flop? I'd check behind here, evaluate from there

masterdon · #3 07-17-2007, 04:33 PM

I would bet more on the flop to semibluff, much closer to pot.

Then I would either check the turn or fire out a little over 1/2 pot on the turn, depending on how aggressive villain is and how likely you think it will be that he will try to float you.

SABR42 · #4 07-17-2007, 04:34 PM

Call.

Open shove a jack or club.

rdrr · #5 07-17-2007, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

Open shove a jack or club.

[/ QUOTE ]

MINETZ · #6 07-17-2007, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

Open shove a jack or club.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mingdu · #7 07-17-2007, 04:40 PM

Why are you guys calling when you are overpaying to hit your hand ... and it won't even be the nuts?

rdrr · #8 07-17-2007, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you guys calling when you are overpaying to hit your hand ... and it won't even be the nuts?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's calling 23.6% with 26.1% of hitting a J or club; even if you take out the 9c and 4c it's 21.7% to hit and punish this guy for a further $99 for playing his set like an idiot.

You're missing out on tons and tons of value if you always need the nuts to feel comfortable on the river; I know, I've been like that awhile but I'm beginning to open up.

Mingdu · #9 07-17-2007, 04:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]

He's calling 23.6% with 26.1% of hitting a J or club;

[/ QUOTE ]

I would do that all day ... but it's over 30%, not 23.6

also ... I might do this if it was the nuts I was drawing to ... but it isn't

BT2 · #10 07-17-2007, 04:56 PM

bet more on flop so you can check/raise all in on the turn.