$10.75 NLTRN - TPNK vs. bad villian

[Insane_Steve]

2nd match in a 4 player HU SNG. Villian is a terrible very predictable calling station with the following betting patterns:

-Will call any bet on any "safe" (not monotone) flop with any pair or ace high.
-Will bet pot roughly 90% of the time he bets, with min-bets being the other 10%. The one time I went to showdown when he min-bet, he tabled a busted straight draw.
-If he bets the flop, he will almost always pot the turn, and again pot the river if you call.
-Has not once in the match raised my bets post-flop. He raises about 20% of hands pre-flop (about half min-raise, half 3x) and has never 3-bet. If he raises pre-flop, he almost always pots the flop.

My plan is obviously to pick up one big hand in a raised pot and let him bet or call himself into oblivion, but I've missed pretty much every flop so far in this match.

Also, the match started double-stacked (3,000 chips per player, 10/20 blinds).

Blinds are 20/40

BB: Hero (3,040)
SB: Villian (2,960)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Villian raises to 80
Hero calls 40
*** FLOP *** [8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] (pot 160)
Hero checks
Villian bets 40
Hero calls 40
*** TURN *** [8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] (pot 240)
Hero checks
Villian bets 240
Hero calls 240
*** RIVER *** [8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]][7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] (pot 720)
Hero checks
Villian bets 720
Hero ???

Line check? Ok, so the flop call might be total spew, but against this type of opponent is this hand good enough on the turn/river to take a stand?

[ChicagoRy]

OOP K2o isn't great vs top 20%, especially after the flop and adding in the bet.

Given the turn card it appears you can call safely but now he's raised his bets and made it a lot closer. I think you can call but you're going to see a better K a lot.

The main thing is just figuring out how many hands he does this with. If you've seen him check down a missed A or underpair before when he raised on the button I think you fold here unless you're very sure he's bluffing this a hell of a lot.

[Insane_Steve]

Villian almost never checks the flop after raising preflop, and his raise range isn't necessarily top 20% -- I've seen him limp AQ.

Also, I almost never fold to min-raises this deep from the BB, keep in mind that the blinds are the same in proportion to stacks as level 1 of a Stars HU SNG. This might be a leak.

I figured out most of his betting patterns, but as I said I haven't seen too many of his hands because I've missed a disgustingly high number of flops and have mostly checked down when we both missed or folded to a pot bet (I would never try to bluff this guy, he calls way too wide and I have a big enough stack to wait for a hand).

So I guess this problem becomes a "Is he betting wide enough here for a call to win 1/3rd of the time" problem.