WSOP Main Event Hand #2

[tsarast]

WSOP Main Event: Blinds 200/400... I have 16kish, villain has 20k. I have been playing reasonably tight, villain has as well... but ive only been at this table for less then an hour.
I open to 1300 in EP with AKo (king of diamonds), villain calls in MP, 2 to flop, 2900 in middle.
Flop Ad 9d 3h. I bet 1900, villain calls.
Turn is 6s, check/check.
River is 7c, i bet 4k, villain rr me allin somewhat quickly... ie less then 10 seconds (i have 8.5k left, he has me covered).

??????

[LCposter]

Situation kinds sucks in that I think most good villians aren't raising that river without AK, two pair or better, but I think it's a call for the following reasons:

1) You've put almost half your stack into the pot already.

2) With starting stacks of 20K, I don't think an 8.5k stack has much tournament equity.

3) You have TPTK on a fairly raggedy board. The board doesn't look like it hits two pair often, 54 and T8 don't call flop, and any set was played a little strangely (AA 99 33 66 likely bet turn and 77 doesn't call flop). It would be easy to include a missed flush draw in his range except for your Kd. I think he's value-raising AK or bluff-raising a weaker ace often enough that you have a good chance of chopping or winning this pot. I cross my fingers, hope he's bad enough to value-raise AQ/AJ, and call.

[stevepa]

I really think you should bet the turn, checking misses a ton of value against other Ax hands. Now that you're here, flip a coin or something.

[fukkeneh]

bet turn, fold river.

it seems when you go with pot control and it goes bad like this your beat, its easier to read hands when you play the pot in a more standard line however.

you have 8500 chips and thats not that bad at this blind level.

[kagame]

youd def see AQ here

[DeMaci]

[ QUOTE ]
youd def NEVER see AQ here

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