50NL: Priced into drawing?

dpbuck · #1 07-14-2007, 12:29 PM

Another had where I got myself stuck drawing in a big pot...

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $41.15
BB: $49.00
UTG: $107.85
UTG+1: $44.15
MP1: $54.75
MP2: $36.05 - unknown, but has limped each of his first three hands - seems to be not very good
Hero (MP3): $68.25
CO: $42.25
BTN: $52.10 - 27/5/2 through 60 hands - no reads other than stats

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, CO folds, BTN calls $2.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2.00

Thoughts: Trying to isolate weak limper. Button's call could be anything, but it is likely something decent but not anything premium.

Flop: ($8.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
MP2 bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BTN calls $2.00

Thoughts: Good flop for me. I wasn't sure if I should raise or just call. I decided to call to see what Button does. His range for coldcalling from the button includes a lot of hands that hit this flop hard.

Turn: ($14.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
MP2 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50,

Thoughts: Not a good card for me. Eliminates some of my outs, but I'm still priced to draw for my nut flush.

BTN raises to $20.00, MP2 calls $15.50, Hero calls $15.50

Thoughts: Well, button has a 9. Didn't want to see that. Oh, and MP2 calls. Wonderful. I'm stuck drawing in a big pot again.

Comments on my thought process, as well as my play, please. Was the raise on preflop too loose? Should I have raised the flop? How badly did I butcher the turn?

jhill3535 · #2 07-14-2007, 12:50 PM

I would raise the flop. Especially as the Pre-flop aggressor and his small lead. I would bump it to about $10 and get it all in on the flop if 3-bet.

The hand plays out completely different after your flop raise, so it is hard to analyze after that.

dalerobk · #3 07-14-2007, 01:37 PM

You need $90 in the pot to call with 6 to 1 odds (roughly). Plus, you have to realize that with a drawing hand, part of its value comes from being able to extract after you hit. It's pretty obvious one of the two callers has a FD. Unless he's a complete idiot, he's not going to call a significant amount after the flush hits. Plus, there's a decent chance the other guy has two pair or a set and is drawing to a boat in hwihc case you have fewer outs than you think and you might hit and lose more money. Calling here isn't awful, but I do think it's at best neutral EV. But when neutral EV is best case scenario, I think you're better off folding.

KurtSF · #4 07-14-2007, 02:11 PM

First off, raise the flop somewhere between $8-$14. Between his weak lead and your NFD + gutshot + overcard you can step on this flop.

As played, what doesn't seem to be considered is the player behind you. NL playes tend to play pots heads up so they don't come across it often, but this is a very common concept from limit play. In order to assess your drawing odds you have to consider the odds that the player behind you will fold, call, or raise.

Let me make an example on the flop. So the times he folds you are getting 2:10.25 odds to draw. The times he calls you are getting 2:12.25 to draw. But the times he raises (and the weak MP player folds) you'll be putting in $16 to get 26 in the pot. You have to determine how likely this will happen, how often this villain will raise, to figure out if you can profitably draw.

Does that make sense?

LadyWrestler · #5 07-14-2007, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...I think you're better off folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with dalerobk.

Landlord79 · #6 07-14-2007, 03:20 PM

This is the definition of priced into drawing.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP3 ($12.35)
Landlord79 ($8.70)
Button ($3.05)
SB ($4.05)
BB ($2.85)
UTG ($5.30)
UTG+1 ($12.10)
MP1 ($3.90)
MP2 ($5.85)

Preflop: Landlord79 is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, 4 folds, Landlord79 raises to $0.45, 1 fold, SB raises to $1, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.90, Landlord79 calls $0.55.

Flop: ($3.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $3.05 (All-In), UTG calls $3.05, Landlord79 raises to $7.7 (All-In), UTG calls $1.25 (All-In).

Turn: ($18.15) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)
.

River: ($18.15) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: $18.15

Results in white below: 
SB has Ah As (two pair, aces and tens).
UTG has Ts Ks (three of a kind, tens).
Landlord79 has 7d Ad (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Landlord79 wins $18.15.