50NL: AKs - TPTK + FD on Turn

dpbuck · #1 07-14-2007, 12:28 PM

Had a horrible session last night. Found myself drawing in big pots too much. Am I making mistakes getting myself stuck in these situations?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $31.30 - 52/23 lagtard - plays just about ATC from blinds for any amount preflop
BB: $50.00 - unknown - first hand at table
UTG: $61.05
UTG+1: $47.35
MP1: $28.00
MP2: $42.80
MP3: $20.45
Hero (CO): $52.35
BTN: $62.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN folds, SB calls $2.25, BB calls $2.00, MP2 folds

Thoughts: Standard Raise. SB's call did not surprise me. This is BB's first hand at the table, so I don't have much of a read on him.

Flop: ($8) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50, Hero raises to $13.50, SB calls $10.00, BB folds

Thoughts: SB would do this with any Ax, or even KQ. BB's call leads me to believe he is drawing, or has Ax himself. I'm pretty sure I still have the best hand, but I'd kinda like to end this hand now.

Turn: ($38.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $10.00, Hero raises to $20.00, SB calls all-in for $5.30
Uncalled bet of $4.70 returned to Hero

Thoughts: If he's going to lead out again, I am beat. He has AQ-AJ, I imagine. I have the redraw to the nut flush plus a gutshot giving me 14.5 outs (discounting Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), so I think I'm stuck, right? I can't fold, and I can't imagine folding on the river for villain's last $5.30, so I guess I may as well get it in now, though I don't like it.

As much as commenting on how I butchered the hand, please comment on my thought process. Was the raise on the flop bad? I'm stuck on the turn, right? Easy fold if that is the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but that diamond prices me in, no?

friedace · #2 07-14-2007, 01:26 PM

I think you played this fine. With a complete lagtard, you have to think long term. True, he could have AQ, A6, 66, or AJ. Based on his call, then turn weak lead of almost 1/2 his stack, I'd say it's unlikely he's on clubs and that he probably has a big hand, since he's so anxious to build the pot. Has he played like this in the past? What did he have? That being said, with only $15 left after the turn lead, you have to get it in. With the diamonds, if he has AQ/AJ, you have 12 clean outs, which makes you 2.66:1 against. With his bet, there is 48$ in the pot. You know he'll call his last 5, so let's say there is $53 in the pot. You have to put in $15, so 53:15. You're getting 53:15 on the call, which is over 3.5:1 on a 2.66:1 draw, so you have to call. If he has a set, you need a diamond and are a 5.4:1 dog. That being said, given his stats, his range is more than just a set in order to do this. He could have a pair and a flush draw and you could actually be a favorite.

In summary, you played it fine. If he has a monster, just chalk it up as a bad beat, reload, and stack him later.

I like your pf raise size. I really like how much you raised on the flop because the BB has a big stack and that is just enough to get enough info without over-committing yourself if the BB is huge. If either of them shove, you at least have an option to get away (though if SB shoved, with the FD out there, I would instacall). As played, with him as short as he is, I would just push on the turn regardless of whether he bets/checks... don't leave that $5 dollars behind (this is a very minor criticism though).

Even if he shoved on the turn with a Jc/Js, I think against a lagtard, you have to just put him in on the turn.

dalerobk · #3 07-14-2007, 01:57 PM

Your problem is playing big pots with draws. Draws are not that valuable in NL, especially when you're not getting great odds and great implied odds and in position.

dalerobk · #4 07-14-2007, 02:02 PM

By the way, if you think the Jd "prices you in," why do you miniraise? If you know your hand is no good unless you hit and you know he's not folding hte better hand, why raise? Just call.

dpbuck · #5 07-14-2007, 02:03 PM

Thanks for your detailed response.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, if you think the Jd "prices you in," why do you miniraise? If you know your hand is no good unless you hit and you know he's not folding hte better hand, why raise? Just call.

[/ QUOTE ]
That wasn't a minraise. He only had $5.30 behind after his $10 bet. That was putting him all in.

Buffalo Wings · #6 07-14-2007, 02:08 PM

I think you played it fine. Raising flop seems standard against this type of player. After turn I'm not folding with TP/flush+straight draws so might as well put him all in.

dalerobk · #7 07-14-2007, 02:11 PM

Just saw stack sizes and see why you raised. Assuming he has aces up it's barely +EV. but you need to stay out of these marginal situations to begin with.

dalerobk · #8 07-14-2007, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your detailed response.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, if you think the Jd "prices you in," why do you miniraise? If you know your hand is no good unless you hit and you know he's not folding hte better hand, why raise? Just call.

[/ QUOTE ]
That wasn't a minraise. He only had $5.30 behind after his $10 bet. That was putting him all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for being a smartass. Focus on these comments:

Your problem is playing big pots with draws. Draws are not that valuable in NL, especially when you're not getting great odds and great implied odds and in position.

Fundamentals, my friend. Fundamentals

dpbuck · #9 07-14-2007, 02:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for being a smartass.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was not trying to be a smartass. I was being very genuine when I said I appreciated the detailed response, and I was pointing out it was not a minraise.

I apologize if I came off poorly.

EDIT: I realized that I thought friedace's post was yours, hence the "detailed response" comment. Once again, I apologize.

friedace · #10 07-14-2007, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your detailed response.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, if you think the Jd "prices you in," why do you miniraise? If you know your hand is no good unless you hit and you know he's not folding hte better hand, why raise? Just call.

[/ QUOTE ]
That wasn't a minraise. He only had $5.30 behind after his $10 bet. That was putting him all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for being a smartass. Focus on these comments:

Your problem is playing big pots with draws. Draws are not that valuable in NL, especially when you're not getting great odds and great implied odds and in position.

Fundamentals, my friend. Fundamentals

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your point that we don't want to be putting ourselves in situations with just a draw. But we don't know that this is "just a draw". In fact, we might be ahead a lot of the time against this kind of player. If the player was a TAG, then I certainly would have been more cautious in playing this. But, the short stack, combined with lagtard description, means laying down top pair is -EV imo. With the flush draw (and straight draw that I didn't notice), it just makes things easier. The pot is $38. If he had $50 more behind, that's a totally different story. Here, as I mentioned, once you raise on the flop, you are committed. And 3 handed, not raising the flop is dumb in this spot, once you've seen the BB call. Here, the raise worked to perfection, getting the BB out and allowing us to know that he doesn't have us crushed.

To add to my previous post, if we put him on a set and he pushes turn (or bets 10 with 5 behind), that's 53:15, or 3.53:1 we're getting. Assuming with have 7 clean outs for FD (2 pair the board), and 3 outs for straight draw, that's 44:10 against, or 3.4:1. So even if we could put him 100% on a set, by the time we're at the turn, we have to call (getting 3.53:1 pot odds). Add any doubt to his range, and we increase out EV. 80% set, 20% two pair, even more reason to call. He could have two pair, which gives us more outs, or any other combo of hands. I didn't do a range calculation. If anyone wants to do a range calc ( I don't know how... teach me!), I think it would be great for the thread. I think AQ, AJ, 66, JJ, and mayyybe QQ are in his range, but I bet as a lagtard, he'd rr pf with JJ, and definitely with QQ. He could also be drawing to a flush, but that's unlikely imo for the reasons I stated above.

Well played OP and glad I could be of some help.

P.S. OP, can you post results? Just curious [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]