Straight against TAG, deep stacks (interesting)

[Atropos]

Opponent was quite a TAG 18/12/4.50; We had been at this table for about an hour or so and he seemed solid. I had been raising and betting alot of missed overcards and all in all I think my image was at least LAG, because I raised alot and picked up some pots and never showed down a good hand.
Also there was one ridiculous hand, were I horribly misclicked a backdoor straight/flush draw on the flop and pushed it allin, to be called by Aces and sucked out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
So there is a slight possibility that the opponent thinks I'm a total donkey.

I'm interested what you think about my flop line and if I should try to get it allin or rather not.

I did not have a good read on him, but I would estimate:
- KK,QQ,TT, AJ: will definately call the push, consistent with flop play
- AcKc, KQo, KcJc, maybe QT : will quite possibly call the push, consistent with flop play
- AA: doubtful if he calls a push, inconsistent with flop play, I feel like he wouldnt 4bet my checkraise with AA here

The problem in this hand is of course, that the worst hand of his call range (AA) still has about 20% Equity, while most other of his calling hands have at least 30% and AcKc is nearly a coinflip. However against AJo I have 0% Equity to win and only 6% to a split pot, which is horrible of course.

12 combinations AJ --> 6% Equity
18 set combinations --> 64.5% Equity
2 combinations AcKc+KcJc --> 53% Equity
9 combinations KQ --> 80% Equity
3 combinations AA (reduced the number because I think
he does not always callt his): 82% Equity

--> On average around 52% Equity, which would make it slightly correct?

Still it's very close and if you discount some of his lesser hands its -EV. Maybe there is a better line which gets it in on the turn?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $89.45
Hero (BB): $397.50
UTG: $772.53
MP: $200.00
CO: $455.25
BTN: $199.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $7.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $5.00

Flop: ($15) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $11.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $99.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in</font>

[Worm75]

Other than PF standard

[Atropos]

Why is preflop not standard? Deepstacked play against TAG with a hand with good implied odds like J9s looks fine to me. What hands would you call in BB there then?

[Spy Dog]

AI is not so good. Villain loves his hand and is going to the felt like 99% of the time. He has a set or AJ way more than he has a flush draw. I think the best play is to call the flop 3-bet and CRAI on the turn if it's a brick. He'll bet a brick turn 95% of the time, I would guess. If the turn pairs the board then you can check-fold. If the turn is a club I would open-push. Also, if the turn is an Ace I would open push. Not sure about the best play if the turn is a 9??????

[Atropos]

[ QUOTE ]
AI is not so good. Villain loves his hand and is going to the felt like 99% of the time. He has a set or AJ way more than he has a flush draw. I think the best play is to call the flop 3-bet and CRAI on the turn if it's a brick. He'll bet a brick turn 95% of the time, I would guess. If the turn pairs the board then you can check-fold. If the turn is a club I would open-push. Also, if the turn is an Ace I would open push. Not sure about the best play if the turn is a 9??????

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think flop allin is really close, but probably not the best way to play this.

CRAI a brick on the turn I agree, he will bet nearly anything so it's a good move.

I dont understand the open-push any club. It will be a 280$ push in a 200$ pot, which will give him 1.71 : 1 odds and he needs 2:1 to call his set against a flush... I dont think he will fold these and otherwise I dont really see the point? Check-raising club is probably still better.
Pushing the Ace I agree, he would check behind too many hands.

[mertzo]

Standard, he will probably give up a huge part of his bluffs, and given your image you might get looked up pretty light

[GSykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard, he will probably give up a huge part of his bluffs, and given your image you might get looked up pretty light

[/ QUOTE ]

I run almost same stats as OP in this post and I do not look up people light with his image

[mertzo]

was thinking about the misclick thing.

[MadeInPolanD]

pf is not standard, cause u play weak hand oop with TAG who raises CO with not so good hands, so if u do hit most of the time he won't pay u off

i think ur flop line is fine

[carrotsnake]

Its ironic that a hand with good implied odds seems to also have reverse odds in this spot :x &lt;3