NLTRN: Estimating waiting time

[LordMushroom2]

I am interested in being able to estimate how long the waiting time per STT will be in different situations.

Assume the following:
1) The STTs in question take 12 minutes on average to complete.
2) There are on average 4 of these STTs running.
3) The average number of sharks per STT is standard (whatever that is).
4) You know who the sharks are and don´t join if a shark has registered first (you wait until someone else joins, then you register as the first player in the next STT).
5) 50% of the sharks will not join you if you are the first to register.

How would you calculate your average waiting time per STT you play for such a scenario?

If you can show me that, I should be able to calculate for other situations.

If you can supply the figure in number 3 (like 0.4, 0.7, 1.15 or something), I might be able to calculate this myself.

[HokieGreg]

32

[Noodles.]

42

[cwar]

[LordMushroom2]

This forum is supposed to be above ridiculing posters no matter how stupid you feel their questions are. If the degeneration continues, it will end up like the STT-forum.

[Noodles.]

Seriously then: At first you didn't mention this: "(like 0.4, 0.7, 1.15 or something)", secondly, we do not know what level this is, and thirly, find out by trying...

[LordMushroom2]

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At first you didn't mention this: "(like 0.4, 0.7, 1.15 or something)",

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Yes, I realized I didn´t explain very well what I meant so I thought I would illustrate with examples.

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secondly, we do not know what level this is,

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I didn´t think it mattered much, but I can understand that this may vary so let´s say $50ish.

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and thirly, find out by trying...

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That´s what I was hoping to avoid.

[HokieGreg]

12???

[dboy23]

it greatly depends on sharks willingness to sit with you, and how many nonsharks there are at any given time. It will be different at all times of the day if you play high enough stakes, and the best way to go about it in my opinion is to simply measure the time it took you to play a session and then subtract out the amount of time PT has you playing. The answer is your waiting time.

And it would be useful to know so you can adjust the hourly rate PT gives you down to your real hourly and plan accordingly.

edit: and it probably wont take much more than 10 hours playing time to get a decent sample size, so I say just try that, and make some money along the way.

[LordMushroom2]

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12???

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I don´t know if you are just trying to push my buttons (in which case you are doing one hell of a job [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]), but it wasn´t a test where I hold the answer, I was looking for the answer and more importantly how to reach it.

[ QUOTE ]
and it probably wont take much more than 10 hours playing time to get a decent sample size, so I say just try that, and make some money along the way.

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The reason why I wanted to do it mathematically was because I was considering whether I should start playing on a new (to me) soft site which I am likely to outgrow quickly and move to a harder and bigger site, or just start directly at the harder and bigger site.

Playing on a new site requires some setup (making an account, setting up PT, setting up PAHUD, getting used to software etc.) and I wasn´t sure it was worth the trouble to go through all this stuff just to get some extra bucks for a short while. And knowing the waiting time I could expect at different levels would help me make the right decision.

However, I have decided to start playing on the soft site and play on the hard site in periods when the waiting time on the soft site is too long, making me switch site gradually instead of all at once.

As I now have decided whether to start on the soft site or not, I no longer need the mathematical answer. I may in the future, though, but by that time I should be so experienced in "waiting time estimation" that I don´t need it then either.

So what I am basically saying is I have wasted everyone´s time including my own. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]