Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-11-2007, 10:07 PM
StimpackAddict StimpackAddict is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Tsst Ahh Thats The Stuff
Posts: 178
Default Grueling Stat problem, WHAT AM I DOING WRONG?!!?!?!?!

I am in no way shape or form asking someone to do my homework, I have already attempted the problem numerous times.
Here is the problem:

2% of hair dryers produced in a certain plant are defective. Estimate the probablility that of 10,000 randomly selected hair dryers, exactly 225 are defective.

Answers: A) 0.0034 B) 0.0057 C) 0.0065 D) 0.0051

Now in order to solve this, You need to find out what the Mean (MU) is, and what the Variance is (sigma)

Q (chance of defective/failure) is = to .02,

because 1-P = Q, and P = .98 (given)

Mean (Mu) = NxP = (225)(.98)= 220.5

Variance (sigma) = Sq rt. of( (n)(p)(q) ) = sq rt of( (10,000) (.98) (.02) ) = 14

Therfore, p=.98 q=.02 Mu=220.5 and Variance=14

Now you must find the Z scores for the sample size of 225, and because it asks for EXACTLY 225 that are defective, you must take .5 from the number for each Z equation.

Therfore:

Z(1) = Avg Mean - Mu / Variance = 224.5 - 220.5 / 14 = .29 (rounded)

Z(2) = Avg Mean - Mu / Variance = 225.5 - 220.5 / 14 = .36 (rounded)

On my Z Score chart, Z(1)'s score of .29 is = to .6141

and Z(2)'s score of .36 is = to .6406

because .29 < Z < .36 ,

you do this operation: .6406 - .6141

but the problem is, I get the answer .0265, which is no where close to the correct answer, which is .0057

I have triple checked my math, and tried it without rounding even, and I still can't get the answer. What the hell am I doing wrong? I even paralleled this problem to an example problem the teacher did in class.

Any input is appreciated. Thanks.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-11-2007, 10:12 PM
Siegmund Siegmund is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,850
Default Re: Grueling Stat problem, WHAT AM I DOING WRONG?!!?!?!?!

2% are defective, it says. Mean is 10000*0.02.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-11-2007, 10:15 PM
StimpackAddict StimpackAddict is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Tsst Ahh Thats The Stuff
Posts: 178
Default Re: Grueling Stat problem, WHAT AM I DOING WRONG?!!?!?!?!

But doesn't the 2% have to be Q? because if 2% are defective that means 98% are Effective, and the formula for Mean is N x P. Is my mistake that I labeled the 225 defective as "N"?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-11-2007, 10:36 PM
StimpackAddict StimpackAddict is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Tsst Ahh Thats The Stuff
Posts: 178
Default Re: Grueling Stat problem, WHAT AM I DOING WRONG?!!?!?!?!

Ok, I figured out my problem, thanks anyways.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-12-2007, 03:22 AM
1huskerfan 1huskerfan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 372
Default Re: Grueling Stat problem, WHAT AM I DOING WRONG?!!?!?!?!

C(10000, 225)*(.02)^225*(.98)^9775?
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:03 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.