NL200 - Is this fishy play by me here?

mack848 · #1 07-10-2007, 11:40 AM

Villain was Taggy and I thought capable of taking a stab at this without a Jack, once two players checked.

Of course, I was berated for my play. Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($70.40)
Hero ($228.10)
UTG ($176)
MP1 ($190.70)
MP2 ($161.20)
CO ($347.15)
Button ($131.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($9) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $6, Button folds, Hero calls $6, UTG folds.

Turn: ($21) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $13, CO calls $13.

River: ($47) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $26

SABR42 · #2 07-10-2007, 11:42 AM

Fold flop.

As played, bet more on turn and river.

HesseJam · #3 07-10-2007, 11:46 AM

Not fishy. The call @ the flop is ok against this opponent. Just don't make a habit out of it. Reraise sometimes. Fold sometimes.

At the river I am wondering how often he will call $26 and how often he will call let's say $90.

threads13 · #4 07-10-2007, 11:53 AM

I don't mind the flop call with about 6 outs when you are getting over 2:1 to call.

I don't mind a check on the turn. He might give you a nice free card and you don't like a raise. He is unlikely to bet much more than your blocking bet anyways. If you think there is a good chance he will fold in this spot I like the bet. I think it can go either way. Given that you did bet I am fine with the bet size.

When he calls the turn that indicates he likely has a pair of J's, a straight or straight draw, or he maybe even a middle pair with a draw or not. I think you can bet more on the river as he is probably going to put you either on a bluff, a set, or something like AJ. He isn't likely thinking that you have a flush. If you are going to get a call from him I don't think the chances of him calling decrease much from a $26 bet to a $50 bet.

CazicT · #5 07-10-2007, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind the flop call with about 6 outs when you are getting over 2:1 to call.

I don't mind a check on the turn. He might give you a nice free card and you don't like a raise. He is unlikely to bet much more than your blocking bet anyways. If you think there is a good chance he will fold in this spot I like the bet. I think it can go either way. Given that you did bet I am fine with the bet size.

When he calls the turn that indicates he likely has a pair of J's, a straight or straight draw, or he maybe even a middle pair with a draw or not. I think you can bet more on the river as he is probably going to put you either on a bluff, a set, or something like AJ. He isn't likely thinking that you have a flush. If you are going to get a call from him I don't think the chances of him calling decrease much from a $26 bet to a $50 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he only has 5 outs but other than that I agree mostly. I'd rather be in position to make this call on the flop though. It would allow me to get more information and possibly take the pot away on a scary card giving me more "outs". But this is assuming the villian would lay a hand down to a scary card.

threads13 · #6 07-10-2007, 12:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind the flop call with about 6 outs when you are getting over 2:1 to call.

I don't mind a check on the turn. He might give you a nice free card and you don't like a raise. He is unlikely to bet much more than your blocking bet anyways. If you think there is a good chance he will fold in this spot I like the bet. I think it can go either way. Given that you did bet I am fine with the bet size.

When he calls the turn that indicates he likely has a pair of J's, a straight or straight draw, or he maybe even a middle pair with a draw or not. I think you can bet more on the river as he is probably going to put you either on a bluff, a set, or something like AJ. He isn't likely thinking that you have a flush. If you are going to get a call from him I don't think the chances of him calling decrease much from a $26 bet to a $50 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he only has 5 outs but other than that I agree mostly. I'd rather be in position to make this call on the flop though. It would allow me to get more information and possibly take the pot away on a scary card giving me more "outs". But this is assuming the villian would lay a hand down to a scary card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Backdoor flush draw is generally considered 1.5 outs.

mack848 · #7 07-10-2007, 12:08 PM

Yes I know I should have bet more, but I really thought he was weak and would fold to pressure.

My flop thinking was that I had 13 outs to trips, 2 pair or the NFD. This is 28% of the time I think. He likely has a weak TP hand, and sometimes less. He may check/fold the turn.

Even if I know he has KQ and will CB the turn, the following situatuion is true (I think)

72% of the time I lose $6, so in the 28% I hit something, I need to win on average $15 : (0.72 x -6)+ (0.28 x 15)=0

There is already $15 in the pot when I call.

11% of the time I hit trips or 2 pair, I would expect to win at least $40 on average. This means I need to break even on average (so actually lose a further $15 from the turn on average) in the 17% where I hit a flush draw, to give me the $15 profit I need for my call to be +EV.

I need to know where the major flaw in my thinking is here.

mack848 · #8 07-10-2007, 12:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the chances of him calling decrease much from a $26 bet to a $50 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. The last day or two has seen me trying to increase my value bets on the river - and I have had a lot of folds. I need to find the happy medium.

effang · #9 07-10-2007, 12:13 PM

it's fishy, but whatever. you pick up great outs on the turn so feel free to continue!

Thrahl · #10 07-10-2007, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]

My flop thinking was that I had 13 outs to trips, 2 pair or the NFD. This is 28% of the time I think. He likely has a weak TP hand, and sometimes less. He may check/fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

As has been said. You don't have 13 outs on this flop. You have 6.5 at best. And if villain has AJ, which is def in his range, your outs shrink to 3.5. Your OOP in a limped pot, you have nothing invested but your BB, just check fold. This flop call is a spew.