NL 50 QQ set value??

[sluggger5x]

Villian is 55/4/1. I am 100% sure he has AA here. That said with stack sizes, and reads is this preflop play +ev??


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
sluggger5x: $90.70
UTG+1: $90.65
CO: $39.35
Button: $47.75
SB: $59.55
BB: $68.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) sluggger5x is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">sluggger5x raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9</font>, sluggger5x calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $13</font>, <font color="#cc0000">sluggger5x raises to $30</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $59.3</font>, sluggger5x calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($136.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $136.85)


River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($136.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $136.85)


Results:
Final pot: $136.85

by the way he had aa [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] bleh

[shoxbb6]

Can't call for set value, bb doesn't have enough behind

[sakrei]

looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't call for set value, bb doesn't have enough behind

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has just enough to call for set value...

$68 in stack +$2=$70 and it's $7 to call...

Very marginal going by the 5 and 10 rule..However others have done math that says you should be getting more like 12 to 1 to call for set value ALONE...

With that being said If I was 100% certain villain had AA I would fold...It's to high variance and only marginally +EV if that...

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[/ QUOTE ]

$7 to call so it's 10 to 1

[shoxbb6]

You need something like 11-12:1 to call purely for set value, easy fold pf

[Nick C]

The reason you don't have the odds to call for set value is that you'll sometimes lose to set over set (like actually happened). Also, occasionally the flop will be scary enough (as in KKQ) that Villain won't stack off versus your monster.

If it weren't for those things, then you would almost have the odds to play for set value (the odds against flopping a set are about 7.5 to 1). (Edit: Oops, you would have the odds under those circumstances -- I did the math wrong and thought you were only getting 7:1 even with implied odds -- but the circumstances I just described are imaginary anyway.)

The possibility of losing to set over set hurts more than I used to realize, by the way. The thing is, we're relying on implied odds to play, and that 8.4 percent of the time that Villain spikes a two-outer on the turn or river after we get all our money in on the flop really hurts. It means we're just breaking even on 17 percent of our ~12 percent shot (even if Villain will always stack off, his suckout potential means that our implied odds are not perfect).

And, er, there's probably a better way to express what I just said, but if I'm remembering correctly, if we know we're up against a bigger PP that Villain will stack off with, we still need for the pot size + the remaining effective stacks to be about 11 times bigger than what we actually have to call.

[iwa]

How many hands do you have on your opponent for those stats. You don't believe they might have a range wider than just aa? What about the possiblity of ak+, jj+. Your equity against this range is fairly good, especially if you throw in 10s. I wouldn't automatically assume people have a monster hand when there has been a raise and re-raise. Aks is pretty.

[Maliant]

set value kinda dumb question here, you don't have set value, but unless you are clairavoyant I can't auto put him on KK or AA here, I would call and explode in my pants on flop like you did.

[Nick C]

I was thinking about this thread while I was driving in my car this morning, and I'm going to have to change my original answer.

If you really knew for certain that Villain had AA and your plan on an AQx flop was to check-fold, then I believe that instead of needing approximately 11:1 (including implied odds) to call, you only need about 9:1. (That 9:1 is not exact but is based on the rough math I was doing in my head while driving.) The 11:1 is based on the idea that you will sometimes flop an underset and not know it and thus get your money in with a one-outer, but that shouldn't apply here.

Assuming, of course, that your read on Villain having exactly AA is 100 percent accurate. If that read might be off (or if it's on but you decide not to trust it anymore on that AQx flop), then that changes things.