AA facing some action

[Poseidon65]

Villain is 20/7.5/1.5 over 80 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $50.30
CO: $9
Button: $128.95
SB: $56.60
BB: $17.15

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $13.25</font>, Hero?

[Poseidon65]

Any thoughts from the morning crowd?

[wafflemaker]

He cold called 3.5xbb raise, I'd say his range is something like 22-JJ? High chances that he hit a set. What's your image on the table? Have you seen him showdown anything yet?

Fold. most of the time I'd go all-in, only to find myself staring at a set. Especially someone with "nitty" stats like Villain.

[Genz]

ugly. But I think his range is wider than sets. Certainly no overcards. And probably no flush draw. But big pairs that he wouldn't reraise with are certainly in his range. TT, JJ, QQ. Either way you are playing for stacks here if you continue. If you think he is nitty and waits for hands to get payed off, fold. Otherwise push.

[simonpoker]

I would need more information here but most cases I would push since I cbet here 100% and maybe BUT have noticed it and decided to play back at me.

[Poseidon65]

My read here is that he is not one of those players who always bets when he has hands, and always checks otherwise (you know the type).

[wafflemaker]

[ QUOTE ]
ugly. But I think his range is wider than sets. Certainly no overcards. And probably no flush draw. But big pairs that he wouldn't reraise with are certainly in his range. TT, JJ, QQ. Either way you are playing for stacks here if you continue. If you think he is nitty and waits for hands to get payed off, fold. Otherwise push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Got me thinking, on such a dry flop and HU situation, I think he'll probably just smoothcall the flop and raise the turn, if he's on a set. Could be that he's on TT, JJ, QQ... If he's on overpairs, he'll probably fold to a shove.

Smooth-call and c/r allin on the turn, if you intend to take it to the felt.

[JerBear77]

*grunch*

You might be ahead here but im certain you can't be better than 60% if you are ahead because of the field of draws against you.

Do you want to gamble? If yes than call.

[sick0fbe4tz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ugly. But I think his range is wider than sets. Certainly no overcards. And probably no flush draw. But big pairs that he wouldn't reraise with are certainly in his range. TT, JJ, QQ. Either way you are playing for stacks here if you continue. If you think he is nitty and waits for hands to get payed off, fold. Otherwise push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Got me thinking, on such a dry flop and HU situation, I think he'll probably just smoothcall the flop and raise the turn, if he's on a set. Could be that he's on TT, JJ, QQ... If he's on overpairs, he'll probably fold to a shove.

Smooth-call and c/r allin on the turn, if you intend to take it to the felt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dry flop?

[fees]

I think folding and shoving are both fine here.. its close, but I think I lean towards AI here