50-50 on FTP JJ facing reraise.

gimmetheloot · #1 07-07-2007, 11:48 PM

Hero has been pretty quiet lately, very card dead. Villain is new to table, last 2 orbits, has been quiet as well.

Payouts are not too close.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2882157158: The Fifty-Fifty (21536426), Table 6 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:29:17 ET - 2007/07/07
Seat 1: BB (4,383)
Seat 2: UTG (1,675)
Seat 3: Hero (7,588)
Seat 4: MP1 (6,377)
Seat 5: MP2 (19,383)
Seat 6: MP3 (9,856)
Seat 7: CO (3,555)
Seat 8: BTN (7,706)
Seat 9: SB (16,090)
SB posts the small blind of 100
BB posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]

1 fold, Hero raises to 630, 5 folds, SB raises to 1,600, Hero calls 970

*** FLOP *** [6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

SB bets 2,000
Hero ???

Very new to tournaments, and this was a pretty uncomfortable spot for me. If I call, am I folding to a turn bet? (assume so) Can I ever value push here against a guy who has been quiet since he got to the table? (only 2 orbits). If I call and he checks turn, I should check it back and play the river, correct?

gimmetheloot · #2 07-09-2007, 02:19 PM

one bump...any1 got some sort of line for me?

illini43 · #3 07-09-2007, 02:33 PM

Standard 3-bet ranges are usually JJ-AKs for most tight players.

Given that you don't have a lot of information (only 2 orbits), I would tend to fold this on the flop.

Preflop is fine. 4-bet pushing JJ over a tight player's 3-bet can't be +EV.

I think your decision on the flop with your stack size is to push or fold. If you call, you are calling off 1/3 of your stack without any idea of what villain has. Since his range is probably pretty tight, this bet makes sense for any overpair and maybe AK.

If your stack was deeper, I might call this flop and see what he does on the turn. If he checks the turn, I usually fire a bet / push. Many tight players will slow down if they are called on a c-bet with two unpaired overcards. If he has AK/AQ/KQ and they don't pair up on the turn, he is going to have a very hard time calling a big bet on the turn.

If you check behind on the turn, you are giving him a free card and a free chance to catch up and beat you. JJ is vulnerable - any A/K/Q on the river can hurt you (up to 12 cards), so bet if checked to on the turn.

BarryLyndon · #4 07-09-2007, 02:33 PM

It's hard, because these 50/50s are absolutely terrible and you are getting a call from 1010 sometimes and AK/AQ definitely plays it like this as well. You have no FE against QQ+, but with ~6K in the pot already, I think it's a RRAI on the flop

Barry

RonFezBuddy · #5 07-09-2007, 03:16 PM

This is really tough and what to do really comes down to what you think is 3-bet range is from the SB.

I could see someone doing this with 99+, AQ+. However, since you said he was tight I'd narrow his range to JJ+, AK.

If you trust your read, I think it's a fold.

You still have about 30BBs after this hand and can find a better spot to get chips rather than assume all this risk with such non-favorable indicators.

Of course, I just may be a nit.

aaaaa · #6 07-09-2007, 06:08 PM

So the pot is 4k pf, and the SB bets 2k, you have 6k

My earlier tendency was to not let such a hand go. But over time, I have learned that I overvalue my TT/JJ at 20-30X.

This is the first time I'm calculating this, so guys please check/update because I'm getting contradictory values.

I put him on AA-QQ/AK,AQ.
So AA-QQ: 18 cards
Ak/Aq: 32 cards

For an avg player, say we have 40% overpair, 60% overcards

A. You push:
You put 6K, into a 6k pot and he has to call 4K, so he gets 3:1, which with two overcards and his stack is def a call. So he calls your push in any case.

So, you win only when you have JJ vs overcards (prob = 60%) and no overcards come (6 outs, so 6*4 = 24% = 1/4 prob of losing, 3/4 of winning)

So you win 2/3*3/4 = 45%. Amt won = 10K
You lose 6K the other half time.
So EV = 45%*10-55%*6 = 1.2K

Can some one correct this?

aaaaa · #7 07-09-2007, 06:23 PM

To clarify further, you have 4K+2K = 6K in the pot.

Suppose you push with 6K, into a 6K pot, he has 4K to call, so he's def calling. So you're winning 10K or losing 6K.

You win when he calls with overcards and no overcards come on the turn/r.
prob = 50%*3/4 = 37.5%

So EV = 0 exactly when you assume he has 50% chance of over cards.

Now any player would do this play with Ak definitely. i.e. 16 pairs.
AA,KK,QQ = 6*3 = 18 pairs.

I would do this with AQ too.

So overcard/overpair ratio for me = 60%/40%. at this ratio, I believe we need to push.

Please comment.

gimmetheloot · #8 07-09-2007, 09:40 PM

In the actual hand, I decided before I called pf that if this happened and no AK hit flop I was shoving over, and went with it.

He tabled QQ.

Very unsure of whether the shove was correct, and instinct said fold but i had a plan and stuck with it.

Thanks for the replies, and the math up there.

aaaaa · #9 07-10-2007, 09:27 AM

TWO POINTS:

1. If you think he does this with AQ also, def push.
How many players would do this play with an AQ with a 30-40X pot? I think 80% of players would

2. Does pushing post-flop force him to call?
There is one thing that bothers me for shoving post-flop. If you shove if no AK appears, he may still have the odds to call.

He needs 6 outs, So prob on turn+river = 6*4% = 24% = 3:1

You push with 4K into a 12K pot. So there's a chance he still may call.

What do you think?

Tackleberry · #10 07-10-2007, 10:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[...] I would do this with AQ too. [...]

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but I never ever would 3-bet a tight player´s raise from early position, while holding AQ oop myself!! Please remember additionally that Villain gives Hero excellent odds ... no way, that Villain holds AQ here, at least not, if he is not an absolute donk.