$50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...

[dawade]

No real reads on the villain but he is 17/2/1.6 over some 80 hands...

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $104.85
UTG+1: $60.70
CO: $94.35
Button: $77.85
SB: $71.22
Hero: $50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $27.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $47</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($100.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $100.5)


River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($100.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $100.5)


Results:
Final pot: $100.5

[PRE]

Looks good.

[jessyj07]

i thought it was standard though I don't expect your pair outs to ever be good so maybe it is better to just fold [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[jonyy6788]

[ QUOTE ]
i thought it was standard though I don't expect your pair outs to ever be good so maybe it is better to just fold [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

same here

[barryc83]

im gonna attempt my 1st ever poker stove, be patient.

[Poseidon65]

Let's make some assumptions. One is that you have no fold equity with your bet. Another is that a pair won't take down the pot.

If these are true, you're all-in is betting $42 to win $100.5, so you only need to win the pot 1/(100.5/42), or 41.8% of the time to make this a good play.

You've got lots of outs, nine clubs, and 3 queens (excluding Qc which is already counted), so that's 12 outs twice out of 47 remaining cards. You'll hit one of these outs 43.8% of the time. You may in fact have a few less outs here, since one of your Q outs may be dead if he has a straight. You'll also have a lower chance to win if he has a set, where you make your hand and lose to the boat.

I guess the point is that I think this is really close, and neither play is bad.

[barryc83]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

94,050 games 0.005 secs 18,810,000 games/sec

Board: Jc 8c Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.426% 47.07% 00.36% 44269 335.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 52.574% 52.22% 00.36% 49111 335.00 { JJ-88, AJs, KJs, QJs, Q9s, J8s, T8s, 97s, AJo, KJo, QJo, Q9o, J8o, T8o, 97o }



Thats not including any stone cold bluffs (i realize these are unlikely but that count for some % of the time) or smaller FDs.

PS: someboday tell me if I screwed this up with the sooted/offsoot thing.

[tannenj]

op,

literally no other way to play it.

[Poseidon65]

[ QUOTE ]
op,

literally no other way to play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you feel it's not even close between shoving and folding?

[barryc83]

SO $50 effective stacks. Lets assume that villain just pushes AI here instead of a big raise bc hes committing himself anyways. He's got $47 left after pf with your $5 bet and the pot already ($6.5). So when it gets back to you the pot is $58.5 with $42 left for you to call.

58/42=1.39 or 58.16% (=1.39/2.39) pot equity. SO this means its a clear +EV call we're about 1:1 against his range (assuming I did it right) and we're getting 1.4:1 pot odds.